Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30306225›Full record

ArticleOsteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA2019

Prediction of incident vertebral fracture using CT-based finite element analysis.

B T Allaire, D Lu, F Johannesdottir, D Kopperdahl, T M Keaveny, M Jarraya, A Guermazi, M A Bredella, E J Samelson, D P Kiel and 3 more

Open access · greenAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 61 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
61citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
6.9field-weighted citation impact, top 2% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

61 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 98 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. CT image-based biomarkers for opportunistic screening of osteoporotic fractures: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA · 2024
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  5. QCT-based geometric, densitometric, and biomechanical properties of the aging human thoracolumbar spine.Journal of bone and mineral research : the official journal of the American Society for Bone and Mineral Research · 2026
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  13. Can Multi-Vertebral CT-Based Finite Element Models Accurately Predict Strains? An In Vitro Validation Study.International journal for numerical methods in biomedical engineering · 2025
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1 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors at 5 institutions in 1 country.

B T AllaireCenter for Advanced Orthopaedic Studies, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, 330 Brookline Avenue, RN 115, Boston, MA, 02215, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7165-3346
D LuBoston University, Boston, MA, USA.
F JohannesdottirCenter for Advanced Orthopaedic Studies, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, 330 Brookline Avenue, RN 115, Boston, MA, 02215, USA.
D KopperdahlO.N. Diagnostics LLC, Berkeley, CA, USA.
T M KeavenyDepartment of Mechanical Engineering, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA.
M JarrayaDepartment of Radiology, Mercy Catholic Medical Center, Darby, PA, USA.
A GuermaziBoston University School of Medicine, Boston, MA, USA.
M A BredellaDepartment of Radiology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, USA.
E J SamelsonInstitute for Aging Research, Hebrew SeniorLife, Boston, MA, USA.
D P KielInstitute for Aging Research, Hebrew SeniorLife, Boston, MA, USA.
D E AndersonCenter for Advanced Orthopaedic Studies, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, 330 Brookline Avenue, RN 115, Boston, MA, 02215, USA.
S DemissieBoston University, Boston, MA, USA.
M L BouxseinCenter for Advanced Orthopaedic Studies, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, 330 Brookline Avenue, RN 115, Boston, MA, 02215, USA. mbouxsei@bidmc.harvard.edu.
Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center · USCatholic Medical Center · USMassachusetts General Hospital · USO.N. Diagnostics (United States) · USUniversity of California, Berkeley · US

Funding

RISK FACTORS FOR VERTEBRAL FRACTURE AND BONE LOSSR01AR041398 · NIAMS · RHODE ISLAND HOSPITAL (PROVIDENCE, RI) · PI KIEL, DOUGLAS P. · 1991 to 2025
$16.1M
Biomechanics of Vertebral Fracture: The Framingham QCT StudyR01AR053986 · NIAMS · BETH ISRAEL DEACONESS MEDICAL CENTER · PI BOUXSEIN, MARY L · 2007 to 2016
$5.4M
Influence of Spinal Loading on Vertebral FractureR01AR073019 · NIAMS · BETH ISRAEL DEACONESS MEDICAL CENTER · PI BOUXSEIN, MARY L, SNYDER, BRIAN D · 2018 to 2022
$2.8M
Mechansims and Clinical Importance of Hyperkyphosis:The Framingham StudyR01AG041658 · NIA · HEBREW REHABILITATION CENTER FOR AGED · PI SAMELSON, ELIZABETH J · 2011 to 2015
$2.6M
Age-related Changes in Thoracic Spine BiomechanicsR00AG042458 · NIA · BETH ISRAEL DEACONESS MEDICAL CENTER · PI ANDERSON, DENNIS · 2015 to 2017
$735k
Volumetric Bone Density and Vascular Calcification: The Framingham QCT StudyK01AR053118 · NIAMS · HEBREW REHABILITATION CENTER FOR AGED · PI SAMELSON, ELIZABETH J · 2007 to 2011
$481k
THE FRAMINGHAM HEART STUDY-N01HC25195-268025195-268025195N01HC025195 · HC · TRUSTEES OF BOSTON UNIVERSITY · PI WOLF, PHILIP A · 2002 to 2006
–
NHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC025195NHLBI NIH HHS N01-HC-25195NIAMS NIH HHS K01 AR053118NIAMS NIH HHS R01 AR041398NIAMS NIH HHS R01 AR053986NIAMS NIH HHS R01 AR073019NIA NIH HHS R00 AG042458NIA NIH HHS R01 AG041658NIH HHS R00 AG042458NIH HHS R01 AG041658NIH HHS R01 AR041398NIH HHS R01 AR053986
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Prior studies show vertebral strength from computed tomography-based finite element analysis may be associated with vertebral fracture risk. We found vertebral strength had a strong association with new vertebral fractures, suggesting that vertebral strength measures identify those at risk for vertebral fracture and may be a useful clinical tool.

introductionWe aimed to determine the association between vertebral strength by quantitative computed tomography (CT)-based finite element analysis (FEA) and incident vertebral fracture (VF). In addition, we examined sensitivity and specificity of previously proposed diagnostic thresholds for fragile bone strength and low BMD in predicting VF.

methodsIn a case-control study, 26 incident VF cases (13 men, 13 women) and 62 age- and sex-matched controls aged 50 to 85 years were selected from the Framingham multi-detector computed tomography cohort. Vertebral compressive strength, integral vBMD, trabecular vBMD, CT-based BMC, and CT-based aBMD were measured from CT scans of the lumbar spine.

resultsLower vertebral strength at baseline was associated with an increased risk of new or worsening VF after adjusting for age, BMI, and prevalent VF status (odds ratio (OR) = 5.2 per 1 SD decrease, 95% CI 1.3-19.8). Area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve comparisons revealed that vertebral strength better predicted incident VF than CT-based aBMD (AUC = 0.804 vs. 0.715, p = 0.05) but was not better than integral vBMD (AUC = 0.815) or CT-based BMC (AUC = 0.794). Additionally, proposed fragile bone strength thresholds trended toward better sensitivity for identifying VF than that of aBMD-classified osteoporosis (0.46 vs. 0.23, p = 0.09).

conclusionThis study shows an association between vertebral strength measures and incident vertebral fracture in men and women. Though limited by a small sample size, our findings also suggest that bone strength estimates by CT-based FEA provide equivalent or better ability to predict incident vertebral fracture compared to CT-based aBMD. Our study confirms that CT-based estimates of vertebral strength from FEA are useful for identifying patients who are at high risk for vertebral fracture.

Indexed as

AgedAged, 80 and overBone DensityCase-Control StudiesFemaleFinite Element AnalysisHumansLumbar VertebraeMaleMiddle AgedOsteoporosisOsteoporotic FracturesPredictive Value of TestsRadiographic Image Interpretation, Computer-AssistedRisk AssessmentSensitivity and SpecificityBone strengthFinite element analysisFracture predictionIncident vertebral fracture

Identifiers

PMID30306225
PMCPMC6450770
OpenAlexW2895965876

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceTDM
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.