ArticleJournal of the Royal Society, Interface2018
Pathogen evolution in finite populations: slow and steady spreads the best.
Article in Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed.
- The speed of vaccination rollout and the risk of pathogen adaptation.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2025Article
- The probability of epidemic burnout in the stochastic SIR model with vital dynamics.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
- Markets as drivers of selection for highly virulent poultry pathogens.Nature communications · 2024Article
- A stochastic analysis of the interplay between antibiotic dose, mode of action, and bacterial competition in the evolution of antibiotic resistance.PLoS computational biology · 2023Article
- Stochasticity directs adaptive evolution toward nonequilibrium evolutionary attractors.Ecology · 2023Article
- The three Ts of virulence evolution during zoonotic emergence.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2021Review
- Understanding evolutionary and ecological dynamics using a continuum limit.Ecology and evolution · 2021Review
- Identifiability analysis for stochastic differential equation models in systems biology.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2020Article
- Incorporating genetic selection into individual-based models of malaria and other infectious diseases.Evolutionary applications · 2020Article
- The Price equation and evolutionary epidemiology.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The theory of life-history evolution provides a powerful framework to understand the evolutionary dynamics of pathogens. It assumes, however, that host populations are large and that one can neglect the effects of demographic stochasticity. Here, we expand the theory to account for the effects of finite population size on the evolution of pathogen virulence. We show that demographic stochasticity introduces additional evolutionary forces that can qualitatively affect the dynamics and the evolutionary outcome. We discuss the importance of the shape of the pathogen fitness landscape on the balance between mutation, selection and genetic drift. This analysis reconciles Adaptive Dynamics with population genetics in finite populations and provides a new theoretical toolbox to study life-history evolution in realistic ecological scenarios.
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