ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2018
Maize yields over Europe may increase in spite of climate change, with an appropriate use of the genetic variability of flowering time.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 37 papers.
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37 citing papers in PubMed, 134 citations in OpenAlex.
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- Future projections of European maize yields using AquaCrop with an adaptive growing season.European journal of agronomy : the journal of the European Society for Agronomy · 2026Article
- Temperature thresholds of extreme heat-induced yield loss in maize and soybean reveal geographic heterogeneity across the Northern Hemisphere.Nature food · 2026Article
- Decades' progress and prospects on maize functional genomics and molecular breeding.Science China. Life sciences · 2025Review
- 50 years of breeding to improve yield: how maize stands up to climate change.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2025Review
- A half-century of climate change in major agricultural regions: Trends, impacts, and surprises.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Effect of daily thinning on biweekly increment of growth and yield of maize (Zea mays L.) in mountainous agroecosystem.BMC plant biology · 2025Article
- Resilience in maize production for food security: Evaluating the role of climate-related abiotic stress in Pakistan.Heliyon · 2023Article
- Robotized indoor phenotyping allows genomic prediction of adaptive traits in the field.Nature communications · 2023Article
- The Effect ofJournal of fungi (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Divergent selection of KNR6 maximizes grain production by balancing the flowering-time adaptation and ear size in maize.Plant biotechnology journal · 2023Article
- A genetic tradeoff for tolerance to moderate and severe heat stress in US hybrid maize.PLoS genetics · 2023Article
- Metabolic Responses in Leaves of 15 Italian Olive Cultivars in Correspondence to Variable Climatic Elements.Plants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- More than 1000 genotypes are required to derive robust relationships between yield, yield stability and physiological parameters: a computational study on wheat crop.TAG. Theoretical and applied genetics. Theoretische und angewandte Genetik · 2023Article
- Multi-trait and multi-environment genomic prediction for flowering traits in maize: a deep learning approach.Frontiers in plant science · 2023Article
- Genome-Wide Association Analysis of Senescence-Related Traits in Maize.International journal of molecular sciences · 2022Article
- Global crop yields can be lifted by timely adaptation of growing periods to climate change.Nature communications · 2022Article
- The impact of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming on global maize production and trade.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Matches and mismatches between the global distribution of major food crops and climate suitability.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2022Article
- Simulation of winter wheat response to variable sowing dates and densities in a high-yielding environment.Journal of experimental botany · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
7 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Projections based on invariant genotypes and agronomic practices indicate that climate change will largely decrease crop yields. The comparatively few studies considering farmers' adaptation result in a diversity of impacts depending on their assumptions. We combined experiments and process-based modeling for analyzing the consequences of climate change on European maize yields if farmers made the best use of the current genetic variability of cycle duration, based on practices they currently use. We first showed that the genetic variability of maize flowering time is sufficient for identifying a cycle duration that maximizes yield in a range of European climatic conditions. This was observed in six field experiments with a panel of 121 accessions and extended to 59 European sites over 36 years with a crop model. The assumption that farmers use optimal cycle duration and sowing date was supported by comparison with historical data. Simulations were then carried out for 2050 with 3 million combinations of crop cycle durations, climate scenarios, management practices, and modeling hypotheses. Simulated grain production over Europe in 2050 was stable (-1 to +1%) compared with the 1975-2010 baseline period under the hypotheses of unchanged cycle duration, whereas it was increased (+4-7%) when crop cycle duration and sowing dates were optimized in each local environment. The combined effects of climate change and farmer adaptation reduced the yield gradient between south and north of Europe and increased European maize production if farmers continued to make the best use of the genetic variability of crop cycle duration.
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