ArticleTobacco control2018
Modelling the impact of a new tobacco product: review of Philip Morris International's Population Health Impact Model as applied to the IQOS heated tobacco product.
Article in Tobacco control, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
17 citing papers in PubMed.
- Article
- Impact of FDA endorsement and modified risk versus exposure messaging in IQOS ads: a randomised factorial experiment among US and Israeli adults.Tobacco control · 2024Article
- What Can Current Biomarker Data Tell Us About the Risks of Lung Cancer Posed by Heated Tobacco Products?Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2024Article
- A scoping review of the toxicity and health impact of IQOS.Tobacco induced diseases · 2024Article
- Impact of different health warning label and reduced exposure messages in IQOS ads on perceptions among US and Israeli adults.Preventive medicine reports · 2023Article
- IQOS Use and Interest by Sociodemographic and Tobacco Behavior Characteristics among Adults in the US and Israel.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Article
- FDA's reduced exposure marketing order for IQOS: why it is not a reliable global model.Tobacco control · 2022Article
- The Kentucky SimSmoke Tobacco Control Policy Model of Smokeless Tobacco and Cigarette Use.International journal of health policy and management · 2022Article
- IQOS Marketing in the US: The Need to Study the Impact of FDA Modified Exposure Authorization, Marketing Distribution Channels, and Potential Targeting of Consumers.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
- Analysis of FDA's IQOS marketing authorisation and its policy impacts.Tobacco control · 2020Article
- Adult Smokers' Awareness and Interest in Trying Heated Tobacco Products: Perspectives from Mexico, where HTPs and E-Cigarettes Are Banned.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2020Article
- Association between Electronic Cigarette Use and Asthma in Never-Smokers.Annals of the American Thoracic Society · 2019Article
- Heated Tobacco Products: A Review of Current Knowledge and Initial Assessments.Frontiers in public health · 2019Review
- Heated tobacco products: another tobacco industry global strategy to slow progress in tobacco control.Tobacco control · 2018Article
- Heated tobacco product regulation under US law and the FCTC.Tobacco control · 2018Article
- Heated tobacco products: the example of IQOS.Tobacco control · 2018Article
- Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
objectivesWe review the Population Health Impact Model (PHIM) developed by Philip Morris International and used in its application to the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to market its heated tobacco product (HTP), IQOS, as a modified-risk tobacco product (MRTP). We assess the model against FDA guidelines for MRTP applications and consider more general criteria for evaluating reduced-risk tobacco products.
methodsIn assessing the PHIM against FDA guidelines, we consider two key components of the model: the assumptions implicit in the model (outcomes included, relative harm of the new product vs cigarettes, tobacco-related diseases considered, whether dual or polyuse of the new product is modelled, and what other tobacco products are included) and data used to estimate and validate model parameters (transition rates between non-smoking, cigarette-only smoking, dual use of cigarettes and MRTP, and MRTP-only use; and starting tobacco use prevalence).
resultsThe PHIM is a dynamic state transition model which models the impact of cigarette and MRTP use on mortality from four tobacco-attributable diseases. The PHIM excludes morbidity, underestimates mortality, excludes tobacco products other than cigarettes, does not include FDA-recommended impacts on non-users and underestimates the impact on other population groups.
conclusionThe PHIM underestimates the health impact of HTP products and cannot be used to justify an MRTP claim. An assessment of the impact of a potential MRTP on population health should include a comprehensive measure of health impacts, consideration of all groups impacted, and documented and justifiable assumptions regarding model parameters.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.