ArticleJournal of the American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry2018
A Risk Calculator to Predict the Individual Risk of Conversion From Subthreshold Bipolar Symptoms to Bipolar Disorder I or II in Youth.
Article in Journal of the American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT05427123 (A Collaborative Treatment Network for Youth With or at High Risk for Bipolar Disorder), which is not on this map. Cited by 41 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
A Collaborative Treatment Network for Youth With or at High Risk for Bipolar Disorder
Who cites it
41 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 82 citations in OpenAlex.
- Environmental Risk Factors for Bipolar Disorders and High-Risk States in Adolescence: A Systematic Review.Medicina (Kaunas, Lithuania) · 2020Pooled it
- A randomized trial of telehealth mindfulness-based cognitive therapy and cognitive behavioral therapy groups for adolescents with mood or attenuated psychosis symptoms.Journal of consulting and clinical psychology · 2023Trial
- Early Family Intervention for Youth at Risk for Bipolar Disorder: Psychosocial and Neural Mediators of Outcome.Current neuropharmacology · 2023Trial
- Mood Instability in Youth at High Risk for Bipolar Disorder.Journal of the American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry · 2022Trial
- Effects of family intervention on psychosocial functioning and mood symptoms of youth at high risk for bipolar disorder.Journal of consulting and clinical psychology · 2022Trial
- Development and Open Trial of a Technology-Enhanced Family Intervention for Adolescents at Risk for Mood Disorders.Journal of affective disorders · 2021Trial
- Longitudinal trajectories of mood symptoms and global functioning in youth at high risk for bipolar disorder.Journal of affective disorders · 2020Trial
- Effects of Family-Focused Therapy vs Enhanced Usual Care for Symptomatic Youths at High Risk for Bipolar Disorder: A Randomized Clinical Trial.JAMA psychiatry · 2020Trial
- Towards an Integrated Staging Model for Bipolar Disorders: An International Society for Bipolar Disorders (ISBD) Staging Task Force Consensus Report.Bipolar disorders · 2026Review
- Validation and Extension of a Risk Calculator to Predict Mood Recurrence in Young People with Bipolar Disorder.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Development and validation of a prognostic model and risk calculator for the estimation of bipolar-spectrum disorder risk in hospitalised adolescents with non-psychotic/non-bipolar mental disorders.Molecular psychiatry · 2026Article
- Mapping Multimodal Risk Factors to Mental Health Outcomes.Nature. Mental health · 2025Article
- A prognostic model for predicting functional impairment in youth mental health services.European psychiatry : the journal of the Association of European Psychiatrists · 2024Article
- Prodromal symptoms of a first manic episode: a qualitative study to the perspectives of patients with bipolar disorder and their caregivers'.International journal of bipolar disorders · 2024Article
- Running in the FAMILY: understanding and predicting the intergenerational transmission of mental illness.European child & adolescent psychiatry · 2024Article
- Predictors of Transition from Child and Adolescent Bipolar Not Otherwise Specified to Bipolar I Disorder, a Longitudinal 3.9-Year Study.Journal of clinical medicine · 2024Article
- Validation of a youth suicide risk calculator in an adult sample with bipolar disorder.Journal of affective disorders · 2024Article
- Towards a youth mental health paradigm: a perspective and roadmap.Molecular psychiatry · 2023Review
- Staging the bipolar disorders: Are early stages at too early a stage for intervention?Bipolar disorders · 2022Review
- Conceptualizing eating disorder recovery research: Current perspectives and future research directions.Journal of eating disorders · 2022Review
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
13 authors at 5 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
objectiveYouth with subthreshold mania are at increased risk of conversion to bipolar disorder (BP) I/II. Predictors for conversion have been published for the group as a whole. However, risk factors are heterogeneous, indicating the need for personalized risk assessment.
methodOne hundred forty youth with BP not otherwise specified (BP-NOS; 6-17 years old) followed through the Course and Outcome of Bipolar Youth (COBY) study with at least 1 follow-up assessment before conversion to BP-I/II were included. Youths were assessed on average every 7 months (median 11.5 years) using standard instruments. Risk predictors reported in the literature were used to build a 5-year risk calculator. Discrimination was measured using the time-dependent area under the curve after 1,000 bootstrap resamples. Calibration was evaluated by comparing observed with predicted probability of conversion. External validation was performed using an independent sample of 58 youths with BP-NOS recruited from the Pittsburgh Bipolar Offspring Study.
resultsSeventy-five (53.6%) COBY youths with BP-NOS converted to BP-I/II, of which 57 (76.0%) converted within 5 years. Earlier-onset BP-NOS, familial hypomania/mania, and high mania, anxiety, and mood lability symptoms were important predictors of conversion. The calculator showed excellent consistency between the predicted and observed risks of conversion, good discrimination between converters and non-converters (area under the curve 0.71, CI 0.67-0.74), and a proportionally increasing rate of converters at each successive risk class. Discrimination in the external validation sample was good (area under the curve 0.75).
conclusionIf replicated, the risk calculator would provide a useful tool to predict personalized risk of conversion from subsyndromal mania to BP-I/II and inform individualized interventions and research.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.