ArticleTropical medicine and infectious disease2017
Monitoring the Path to the Elimination of Infectious Diseases.
Article in Tropical medicine and infectious disease, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Pooled it
- Early warning signals do not predict a warming-induced experimental epidemic.PLOS global public health · 2025Article
- A modelling analysis of a new multi-stage pathway for classifying achievement of public health milestones for leprosy.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2023Article
- The potential of resilience indicators to anticipate infectious disease outbreaks, a systematic review and guide.PLOS global public health · 2023Article
- Anticipating infectious disease re-emergence and elimination: a test of early warning signals using empirically based models.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2022Article
- Overlapping timescales obscure early warning signals of the second COVID-19 wave.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2022Article
- Early warning signals of infectious disease transitions: a review.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2021Review
- Early warning signals of malaria resurgence in Kericho, Kenya.Biology letters · 2020Article
- The problem of detrending when analysing potential indicators of disease elimination.Journal of theoretical biology · 2019Article
- Disentangling reporting and disease transmission.Theoretical ecology · 2019Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
Abstract
During the endgame of elimination programs, parasite populations may exhibit dynamical phenomena not typical of endemic disease. Particularly, monitoring programs for tracking infection prevalence may be hampered by overall rarity, the sporadic and unpredictable timing and location of outbreaks, and under-reporting. A particularly important problem for monitoring is determining the distance that must be covered to achieve the elimination threshold at an effective reproduction number less than one. In this perspective, we suggest that this problem may be overcome by measuring critical slowing down. Critical slowing down is a phenomenon exhibited by nonlinear dynamical systems in the vicinity of a critical threshold. In infectious disease dynamics, critical slowing down is expressed as an increase in the coefficient of variation and other properties of the fluctuations in the number of cases. In simulations, we show the coefficient of variation to be insensitive to under-reporting error and therefore a robust measurement of the approach to elimination. Additionally, we show that there is an inevitable delay between the time at which the effective reproduction number is reduced to below one and complete elimination is achieved. We urge that monitoring programs include dynamical properties such as critical slowing down in their metrics for measuring achievement and avoid withdrawing control activities prematurely.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.