ArticleMalaria journal2018
Spatio-temporal analysis of Plasmodium falciparum prevalence to understand the past and chart the future of malaria control in Kenya.
Article in Malaria journal, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 63 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
63 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Spatial connectivity in mosquito-borne disease models: a systematic review of methods and assumptions.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2021Pooled it
- Geospatial estimation of reproductive, maternal, newborn and child health indicators: a systematic review of methodological aspects of studies based on household surveys.International journal of health geographics · 2020Pooled it
- Spatial and spatio-temporal methods for mapping malaria risk: a systematic review.BMJ global health · 2020Pooled it
- Spatial exploration of the impact of cattle on risk of malarial infection using data from a cluster randomised trial.BMJ global health · 2026Article
- The Malaria Vaccine Programme Evaluation in Kenya: results of a baseline household survey prior to the introduction of the RTS,S/AS01 vaccine.Malaria journal · 2026Observational
- Spatio-temporal heterogeneity of urban malaria in Libreville, Gabon (2012-2023): neighborhood-level hotspot analysis for micro-stratified control.Malaria journal · 2026Article
- Prevalence of malaria and its environmental and socio-cultural determinants in Tandahimba district council, Mtwara Region, Tanzania.MalariaWorld journal · 2026Article
- Climate, Interventions, and Malaria Outcomes in a Warming World: Towards Climate-Smart Malaria Control in Kenya.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2025Article
- A scoping review of antimalarial drug resistance markers in Kenya (1987-2022): toward a National Surveillance Framework and Data Repository.Malaria journal · 2025Article
- Identifying malaria epidemic periods in Togo by health district and target group: a generalised additive model approach.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Through the eyes of the participant: using photovoice to understand the experiences and effects of ivermectin MDA in the context of the BOHEMIA clinical trial in Kwale, Kenya.Malaria journal · 2025Article
- Malaria survey data and geospatial suitability mapping for understanding spatial and temporal variations of risk across Kenya.Parasite epidemiology and control · 2025Article
- Malaria hotspots and risk factors among children under-five years of age across eight West African countries: A geospatial analysis of DHS data.MalariaWorld journal · 2025Article
- Paediatric anaemia in rural Kenya and the role of travel time to emergency care services.Frontiers in epidemiology · 2025Article
- The influence of malaria control interventions and climate variability on changes in the geographical distribution of parasite prevalence in Kenya between 2015 and 2020.International journal of health geographics · 2024Article
- The effects of climatic and non-climatic factors on malaria mortality at different spatial scales in western Kenya, 2008-2019.BMJ global health · 2024Article
- Evaluating the gap in rapid diagnostic testing: insights from subnational Kenyan routine health data.BMJ open · 2024Article
- Identifying childhood malaria hotspots and risk factors in a Nigerian city using geostatistical modelling approach.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Malaria vaccine coverage estimation using age-eligible populations and service user denominators in Kenya.Malaria journal · 2023Article
- Burden and seasonal distribution of malaria in Ziquala district, Northeast Ethiopia: a 5-year multi-centre retrospective study.BMJ open · 2023Article
3 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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Abstract
backgroundSpatial and temporal malaria risk maps are essential tools to monitor the impact of control, evaluate priority areas to reorient intervention approaches and investments in malaria endemic countries. Here, the analysis of 36 years data on Plasmodium falciparum prevalence is used to understand the past and chart a future for malaria control in Kenya by confidently highlighting areas within important policy relevant thresholds to allow either the revision of malaria strategies to those that support pre-elimination or those that require additional control efforts.
methodsPlasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence (PfPR) surveys undertaken in Kenya between 1980 and 2015 were assembled. A spatio-temporal geostatistical model was fitted to predict annual malaria risk for children aged 2-10 years (PfPR
results5020 surveys at 3701 communities were assembled. Nationally, there was an 88% reduction in the mean modelled PfPR
conclusionsKenya has made substantial progress in reducing the prevalence of malaria over the last 26 years. Areas today confidently and consistently with < 1% prevalence require a revised approach to control and a possible consideration of strategies that support pre-elimination. Conversely, there remains several intractable areas where current levels and approaches to control might be inadequate. The modelling approaches presented here allow the Ministry of Health opportunities to consider data-driven model certainty in defining their future spatial targeting of resources.
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