ArticleEnvironmental science and pollution research international2018
Time series modeling of pneumonia admissions and its association with air pollution and climate variables in Chiang Mai Province, Thailand.
Article in Environmental science and pollution research international, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers.
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14 citing papers in PubMed.
- Association of climate variables with pneumonia patterns in a tropical coastal province of thailand: a bayesian structural time series analysis.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Exploring the influence of environmental indicators and forecasting influenza incidence using ARIMAX models.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- The mortality and years of life lost for community-acquired pneumonia before and during COVID-19 pandemic in China.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2024Article
- Aetiologies and Risk Factors of Prolonged Fever Admission in Samtse Hospital, Bhutan, 2020.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- The Elemental Characteristics and Human Health Risk of PMInternational journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Effectiveness of cascading time series models based on meteorological factors in improving health risk prediction.Environmental science and pollution research international · 2022Article
- Article
- Particulate matter (PMBMC public health · 2021Article
- Spatio-temporal patterns of childhood pneumonia in Bhutan: a Bayesian analysis.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- The air quality changes and related mortality benefits during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic in China: Results from a nationwide forecasting study.Journal of cleaner production · 2021Article
- Influence of the meteorological conditions and some pollutants on PMJournal of environmental health science & engineering · 2021Article
- Developing a model to predict air pollution (case study: Tehran City).Journal of environmental health science & engineering · 2021Article
- The Health Risks of Airborne Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs): Upper North Thailand.GeoHealth · 2021Article
- Ambient particulate matter and biomass burning: an ecological time series study of respiratory and cardiovascular hospital visits in northern Thailand.Environmental health : a global access science source · 2020Article
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2 authors.
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Abstract
This study aimed to predict the number of pneumonia cases in Chiang Mai Province. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) was used in data fitting and to predict future pneumonia cases monthly. Total pneumonia cases of 67,583 were recorded in Chiang Mai during 2003-2014 that the monthly pattern of case was similar every year. Monthly pneumonia cases were increased during February and September, which are the periods of winter and rainy season in Thailand and decreased during April to July (the period of summer season to early rainy season). Using available data on 12 years of pneumonia cases, air pollution, and climate in Chiang Mai, the optimum ARIMA model was investigated based on several conditions. Seasonal change was included in the models due to statistically strong season conditions. Twelve ARIMA model (ARMODEL1-ARMODEL12) scenarios were investigated. Results showed that the most appropriate model was ARIMA (1,0,2)(2,0,0)[12] with PM10 (ARMODEL5) exhibiting the lowest AIC of - 38.29. The predicted number of monthly pneumonia cases by using ARMODEL5 during January to March 2013 was 727, 707, and 658 cases, while the real number was 804, 868, and 783 cases, respectively. This finding indicated that PM
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