ArticlePLoS biology2018
Evolutionary emergence of infectious diseases in heterogeneous host populations.
Article in PLoS biology, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 57 papers.
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Who cites it
57 citing papers in PubMed.
- Quantitative Resistance Deployment Can Strengthen Epidemics in Perennial Plants by Selecting Maladapted Pathogen Strains.Evolutionary applications · 2025Article
- The speed of vaccination rollout and the risk of pathogen adaptation.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2025Article
- Host Competitive Asymmetries Accelerate Viral Evolution in a Microbe-Virus Coevolutionary System.Ecology letters · 2025Article
- Eco-evolutionary dynamics of pathogen immune-escape: deriving a population-level phylodynamic curve.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2025Article
- Punctuated virus-driven succession generates dynamical alternations in CRISPR-mediated microbe-virus coevolution.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2024Article
- Evolution and spread of multiadapted pathogens in a spatially heterogeneous environment.Evolution letters · 2024Article
- Modeling spatial evolution of multi-drug resistance under drug environmental gradients.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Building pyramids against the evolutionary emergence of pathogens.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2024Article
- My host's enemy is my enemy: plasmids carrying CRISPR-Cas as a defence against phages.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2024Article
- Article
- Modeling spatial evolution of multi-drug resistance under drug environmental gradients.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2023Article
- Transient eco-evolutionary dynamics early in a phage epidemic have strong and lasting impact on the long-term evolution of bacterial defences.PLoS biology · 2023Article
- The proportion of resistant hosts in mixtures should be biased towards the resistance with the lowest breaking cost.PLoS computational biology · 2023Article
- Article
- Non-pharmaceutical interventions and the emergence of pathogen variants.Evolution, medicine, and public health · 2023Article
- Can breeders prevent pathogen adaptation when selecting for increased resistance to infectious diseases?Genetics, selection, evolution : GSE · 2022Article
- Competition and coevolution drive the evolution and the diversification of CRISPR immunity.Nature ecology & evolution · 2022Article
- Ecological and evolutionary dynamics of multi-strain RNA viruses.Nature ecology & evolution · 2022Review
- Developing an empirical model for spillover and emergence: Orsay virus host range inProceedings. Biological sciences · 2022Article
- Revisiting implementation of multiple natural enemies in pest management.Scientific reports · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
Abstract
The emergence and re-emergence of pathogens remains a major public health concern. Unfortunately, when and where pathogens will (re-)emerge is notoriously difficult to predict, as the erratic nature of those events is reinforced by the stochastic nature of pathogen evolution during the early phase of an epidemic. For instance, mutations allowing pathogens to escape host resistance may boost pathogen spread and promote emergence. Yet, the ecological factors that govern such evolutionary emergence remain elusive because of the lack of ecological realism of current theoretical frameworks and the difficulty of experimentally testing their predictions. Here, we develop a theoretical model to explore the effects of the heterogeneity of the host population on the probability of pathogen emergence, with or without pathogen evolution. We show that evolutionary emergence and the spread of escape mutations in the pathogen population is more likely to occur when the host population contains an intermediate proportion of resistant hosts. We also show that the probability of pathogen emergence rapidly declines with the diversity of resistance in the host population. Experimental tests using lytic bacteriophages infecting their bacterial hosts containing Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeat and CRISPR-associated (CRISPR-Cas) immune defenses confirm these theoretical predictions. These results suggest effective strategies for cross-species spillover and for the management of emerging infectious diseases.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.