ArticleRisk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis2019
Environmental Surveillance System Characteristics and Impacts on Confidence About No Undetected Serotype 1 Wild Poliovirus Circulation.
Article in Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
20 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Review of Poliovirus Transmission and Economic Modeling to Support Global Polio Eradication: 2020-2024.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Pooled it
- Integrating environmental and clinical surveillance for typhoid: insights from a prospective wastewater surveillance study in urban India.The Lancet. Microbe · 2026Article
- Impediments to Progress Toward Polio Eradication During 2014-2024: Effectively Addressing the Current Challenges.Vaccines · 2025Review
- Characterization of environmental and clinical surveillance inputs to support prospective integrated modeling of the polio endgame.PLOS global public health · 2025Review
- Risk Assessments for Type 1 Wild Poliovirus and Type 2 Vaccine-Derived Poliovirus Importation and Transmission - China, 2023.China CDC weekly · 2024Article
- Coordinated global cessation of oral poliovirus vaccine use: Options and potential consequences.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2024Review
- The impact of disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic on global polio eradication.Vaccine · 2023Article
- Modeling scenarios for ending poliovirus transmission in Pakistan and Afghanistan.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2023Article
- Modeling undetected live type 1 wild poliovirus circulation after apparent interruption of transmission: Pakistan and Afghanistan.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2023Article
- Effect of Population Partitioning on the Probability of Silent Circulation of Poliovirus.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2022Article
- Article
- Modeling Poliovirus Surveillance and Immunization Campaign Quality Monitoring Costs for Pakistan and Afghanistan for 2019-2023.Open forum infectious diseases · 2021Article
- Disease Surveillance Investments and Administration: Limits to Information Value in Pakistan Polio Eradication.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2021Article
- Reflections on Modeling Poliovirus Transmission and the Polio Eradication Endgame.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2021Review
- Modeling and Managing Poliovirus Risks: We are Where we are….Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2021Article
- Review of poliovirus modeling performed from 2000 to 2019 to support global polio eradication.Expert review of vaccines · 2020Review
- Designing a typhoid environmental surveillance study: A simulation model for optimum sampling site allocation.Epidemics · 2020Article
- Modeling Undetected Live Poliovirus Circulation After Apparent Interruption of Transmission: Pakistan and Afghanistan.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2019Article
- Article
- Modeling undetected poliovirus circulation following the 2022 outbreak in the United States.Expert review of vaccinesArticle
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Surveillance for poliovirus during the polio endgame remains uncertain. Building on prior modeling of the potential for undetected poliovirus transmission for conditions like those in Pakistan and Afghanistan, we use a hypothetical model to explore several key characteristics of the poliovirus environmental surveillance (ES) system (e.g., number and quality of sites, catchment sizes, and sampling frequency) and characterize their impacts on the time required to reach high (i.e., 95%) confidence about no circulation (CNC95%) following the last detected case of serotype 1 wild poliovirus. The nature and quality of the existing and future acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) surveillance and ES system significantly impact the estimated CNC95% for places like Pakistan and Afghanistan. The analysis illustrates the tradeoffs between number of sites, sampling frequency, and catchments sizes, and suggests diminishing returns of increasing these three factors beyond a point that depends on site quality and the location of sites. Limitations in data quality and the hypothetical nature of the model reduce the ability to assess the extent to which actual ES systems offer benefits that exceed their costs. Thus, although poliovirus ES may help to reduce the time required to reach high confidence about the absence of undetected circulation, the effect strongly depends on the ability to establish effective ES sites in high-risk areas. The costs and benefits of ES require further analysis.
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