ArticleScience (New York, N.Y.)2018
Changing dynamics of the drug overdose epidemic in the United States from 1979 through 2016.
Article in Science (New York, N.Y.), 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 328 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
328 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Novel Insights into Addiction Management: A Meta-Analysis on Intervention for Relapse Prevention.Medicina (Kaunas, Lithuania) · 2025Pooled it
- Patient experience of opioid use disorder treatment medications: a systematic review of contemporary qualitative research.BMJ open · 2024Pooled it
- "Sometimes I'm interested in seeing a fuller story to tell with numbers" Implementing a forecasting dashboard for harm reduction and overdose prevention: a qualitative assessment.BMC public health · 2025Trial
- Socioenvironmental disasters and the dialectics of overdose mortality.The International journal on drug policy · 2026Article
- Charting the decline of the fourth wave: US overdose deaths by race, ethnicity and substance involvement.Addiction (Abingdon, England) · 2026Article
- The Drug Market's Impact on the Overdose Risk Environment for Women Who Use Drugs During the COVID-19 Pandemic.Journal of urban health : bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine · 2026Article
- National trends in cardiovascular deaths with concurrent accidental drug poisoning coding in the United States: a 22-year analysis of the CDC WONDER database (1999-2020).BMC cardiovascular disorders · 2026Article
- From Research Influencers to Substance Use Policymakers: Bibliometrics Demonstrate Translation From Research to Policy.Journal of studies on alcohol and drugs · 2026Article
- Exploring Perspectives About Public Health Vending Machine Implementation on an American Indian Reservation in the Northern Midwest, United States.AIDS and behavior · 2026Article
- Childhood social characteristics and drug-related mortality by age 41: a register-based study of Finnish birth cohorts 1982-2004.European journal of public health · 2026Article
- Pathways to Resilience: Exploring Post-Traumatic Growth in the Wake of Drug-Related Deaths.Omega · 2026Review
- Higher drug overdose mortality among non-hispanic black adults aged 55 and older in the U.S.: Analysis of national death records from CDC's WONDER database (1999-2023).Drug and alcohol dependence reports · 2026Article
- Are Lung Allografts From Drug Overdose Deaths Safe to Use for Transplantation? A Nationwide Analysis.Annals of thoracic surgery short reports · 2026Article
- The changing contribution of fentanyl use to non-fatal overdose among a cohort of people who inject drugs in San Diego, California: A longitudinal assessment.Drug and alcohol dependence · 2026Article
- Charting the Decline of the Fourth Wave: US Overdose Deaths by Race, Ethnicity, and Substance Involvement.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Naloxone Administration in Relation to Fentanyl, Xylazine, CNS Depressants, and Stimulants Exposure After Suspected Opioid Overdose: A Pilot Study.Academic emergency medicine : official journal of the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine · 2026Observational
- US Overdose Mortality Saw First Drop Below the Jalal-Burke Exponential Growth Curve in 2024.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- The geography of risk: understanding disparities in nonmedical opioid mortality and the role of socio-built environments in New Jersey.Harm reduction journal · 2026Article
- Brain-wide mapping reveals temporal and sexually dimorphic opioid actions.Communications biology · 2026Article
- Single cell RNA transcriptome response to fentanyl use in persons with HIV infection.Scientific reports · 2026Article
268 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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6 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Better understanding of the dynamics of the current U.S. overdose epidemic may aid in the development of more effective prevention and control strategies. We analyzed records of 599,255 deaths from 1979 through 2016 from the National Vital Statistics System in which accidental drug poisoning was identified as the main cause of death. By examining all available data on accidental poisoning deaths back to 1979 and showing that the overall 38-year curve is exponential, we provide evidence that the current wave of opioid overdose deaths (due to prescription opioids, heroin, and fentanyl) may just be the latest manifestation of a more fundamental longer-term process. The 38+ year smooth exponential curve of total U.S. annual accidental drug poisoning deaths is a composite of multiple distinctive subepidemics of different drugs (primarily prescription opioids, heroin, methadone, synthetic opioids, cocaine, and methamphetamine), each with its own specific demographic and geographic characteristics.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.