ArticleEpidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.)2019
Dynamic Prediction of Survival in Cystic Fibrosis: A Landmarking Analysis Using UK Patient Registry Data.
Article in Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.), 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
21 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Ivacaftor-tezacaftor-elexacaftor, tezacaftor-ivacaftor and lumacaftor-ivacaftor for treating cystic fibrosis: a systematic review and economic evaluation.Health technology assessment (Winchester, England) · 2025Pooled it
- A Bayesian Location-Scale Joint Model for Time-To-Event and Multivariate Longitudinal Data With Association Based on Within-Individual Variability.Statistics in medicine · 2026Article
- A comparison of modeling approaches for static and dynamic prediction of central-line bloodstream infections using electronic health records (part 1): regression models.Diagnostic and prognostic research · 2025Article
- Hospital-wide, dynamic, individualized prediction of central line-associated bloodstream infections-development and temporal evaluation of six prediction models.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Demographic factors associated with within-individual variability of lung function for adults with cystic fibrosis: A UK registry study.Journal of cystic fibrosis : official journal of the European Cystic Fibrosis Society · 2024Article
- Development and internal validation of a dynamic fall risk prediction and monitoring tool in aged care using routinely collected electronic health data: a landmarking approach.Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association : JAMIA · 2024Article
- Cancer incidence and competing mortality risk following 15 presenting symptoms in primary care: a population-based cohort study using electronic healthcare records.BMJ oncology · 2024Article
- Factors associated with cystic fibrosis mortality before the age of 30: retrospective analysis of a cohort in southern Brazil.Brazilian journal of medical and biological research = Revista brasileira de pesquisas medicas e biologica · 2024Article
- Dynamic risk prediction of survival in liver cirrhosis: A comparison of landmarking approaches.PloS one · 2024Article
- Lung Function Decline in Cystic Fibrosis: Impact of Data Availability and Modeling Strategies on Clinical Interpretations.Annals of the American Thoracic Society · 2023Article
- Dynamic prediction of survival via Landmark method using the asthma prevention trial in young children.PloS one · 2023Article
- Survival of people with cystic fibrosis in Australia.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- The Effect of Dysglycaemia on Changes in Pulmonary and Aerobic Function in Cystic Fibrosis.Frontiers in physiology · 2022Article
- The TVGH-NYCU Thal-Classifier: Development of a Machine-Learning Classifier for Differentiating Thalassemia and Non-Thalassemia Patients.Diagnostics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2021Article
- Plasmonic Sensing Studies of a Gas-Phase Cystic Fibrosis Marker in Moisture Laden Air.Sensors (Basel, Switzerland) · 2021Article
- The impact of physical activity and exercise interventions for physical health in people with cystic fibrosis: protocol for a systematic review.Systematic reviews · 2021Article
- Ultrasound-Derived Diaphragm Contractile Reserve as a Marker of Clinical Status in Patients With Cystic Fibrosis.Frontiers in physiology · 2021Article
- Explaining the Sex Effect on Survival in Cystic Fibrosis: a Joint Modeling Study of UK Registry Data.Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.) · 2020Article
- Review
- Harnessing repeated measurements of predictor variables for clinical risk prediction: a review of existing methods.Diagnostic and prognostic research · 2020Review
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundCystic fibrosis (CF) is an inherited, chronic, progressive condition affecting around 10,000 individuals in the United Kingdom and over 70,000 worldwide. Survival in CF has improved considerably over recent decades, and it is important to provide up-to-date information on patient prognosis.
methodsThe UK Cystic Fibrosis Registry is a secure centralized database, which collects annual data on almost all CF patients in the United Kingdom. Data from 43,592 annual records from 2005 to 2015 on 6181 individuals were used to develop a dynamic survival prediction model that provides personalized estimates of survival probabilities given a patient's current health status using 16 predictors. We developed the model using the landmarking approach, giving predicted survival curves up to 10 years from 18 to 50 years of age. We compared several models using cross-validation.
resultsThe final model has good discrimination (C-indexes: 0.873, 0.843, and 0.804 for 2-, 5-, and 10-year survival prediction) and low prediction error (Brier scores: 0.036, 0.076, and 0.133). It identifies individuals at low and high risk of short- and long-term mortality based on their current status. For patients 20 years of age during 2013-2015, for example, over 80% had a greater than 95% probability of 2-year survival and 40% were predicted to survive 10 years or more.
conclusionsDynamic personalized prediction models can guide treatment decisions and provide personalized information for patients. Our application illustrates the utility of the landmarking approach for making the best use of longitudinal and survival data and shows how models can be defined and compared in terms of predictive performance.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.