ArticlePloS one2018
Rainfall trends and variation in the Maasai Mara ecosystem and their implications for animal population and biodiversity dynamics.
Article in PloS one, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 22 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
22 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Exploring linkages between drought and HIV treatment adherence in Africa: a systematic review.The Lancet. Planetary health · 2022Pooled it
- Contrasting African elephant movescapes across xeric and mesic savannas.Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America · 2026Article
- Effects of Proximity to Abandoned Livestock Corrals on Standing Grass Biomass, Grass Species Diversity, and Wildlife Use in Olare Motorogi Conservancy, Maasai Mara, Kenya.Ecology and evolution · 2026Article
- Seasonal Microbial and Physicochemical Variations in Shared Water Resources Within the Arid and Semi-Arid Southwestern Kenya Landscape.Environmental health insights · 2026Article
- Risk Factors Associated with Shiga-toxinInternational journal of veterinary science and medicine · 2026Article
- What Drives Compliance with Rules in Community-Based Conservation? Lessons from Maasai Mara, Kenya.Environmental management · 2025Article
- Comparative Ungulate Diversity and Biomass Change With Human Use and Drought: Implications for Community Stability and Protected Area Prioritization in African Savannas.Ecology and evolution · 2025Article
- Incipient Genetic Differentiation of the African Buffalo,Ecology and evolution · 2025Article
- Predicting the impact of targeted fence removal on connectivity in a migratory ecosystem.Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America · 2025Article
- Factors Influencing Iron Levels Among Women of Reproductive Age and Children 6-48 Months in Livestock-Keeping Communities in Narok County, Kenya.Food science & nutrition · 2025Article
- Hierarchical Bayesian Integrated Modeling of Age- and Sex-Structured Wildlife Population Dynamics.Journal of agricultural, biological, and environmental statistics · 2025Article
- Moving beyond forest cover: Linking forest density, age, and fragmentation to diet.Food security · 2025Article
- Factors influencing wildlife roadkill in the Ngorongoro Conservation Area, Northern, Tanzania.PloS one · 2025Article
- Niche Distribution Pattern of Rüppell's Vulture (Ecology and evolution · 2024Article
- Land use drives differential resource selection by African elephants in the Greater Mara Ecosystem, Kenya.Movement ecology · 2024Article
- Multiple pathogens co-exposure and associated risk factors among cattle reared in a wildlife-livestock interface area in Kenya.Frontiers in veterinary science · 2024Article
- Elevational distribution of montane Afrotropical butterflies is influenced by seasonality and habitat structure.PloS one · 2022Article
- Animal movement in a pastoralist population in the Maasai Mara Ecosystem in Kenya and implications for pathogen spread and control.Preventive veterinary medicine · 2021Article
- Quantitative assessment of metal contamination and associated pollution risk in sediments from the Mara River in Tanzania.Environmental monitoring and assessment · 2020Article
- Consequences of climate-induced vegetation changes exceed those of human disturbance for wild impala in the Serengeti ecosystem.Conservation physiology · 2020Article
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
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Abstract
Rainfall exerts a controlling influence on the availability and quality of vegetation and surface water for herbivores in African terrestrial ecosystems. We analyse temporal trends and variation in rainfall in the Maasai Mara ecosystem of East Africa and infer their implications for animal population and biodiversity dynamics. The data originated from 15 rain gauges in the Mara region (1965-2015) and one station in Narok Town (1913-2015), in Kenya's Narok County. This is the first comprehensive and most detailed analysis of changes in rainfall in the region of its kind. Our results do not support the current predictions of the International Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) of very likely increases of rainfall over parts of Eastern Africa. The dry season rainfall component increased during 1935-2015 but annual rainfall decreased during 1962-2015 in Narok Town. Monthly rainfall was more stable and higher in the Mara than in Narok Town, likely because the Mara lies closer to the high-precipitation areas along the shores of Lake Victoria. Predominantly deterministic and persistent inter-annual cycles and extremely stable seasonal rainfall oscillations characterize rainfall in the Mara and Narok regions. The frequency of severe droughts increased and floods intensified in the Mara but droughts became less frequent and less severe in Narok Town. The timings of extreme droughts and floods coincided with significant periodicity in rainfall oscillations, implicating strong influences of global atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns on regional rainfall variability. These changing rainfall patterns have implications for animal population dynamics. The increase in dry season rainfall during 1935-2015 possibly counterbalanced the impacts of resource scarcity generated by the declining annual rainfall during 1965-2015 in Narok Town. However, the increasing rainfall extremes in the Mara can be expected to create conditions conducive to outbreaks of infectious animal diseases and reduced vegetation quality for herbivores, particularly when droughts and floods persist over multiple years. The more extreme wet season rainfall may also alter herbivore space use, including migration patterns.
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