Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30229698›Full record

ArticleStatistical methods in medical research

A spatial regression model for the disaggregation of areal unit based data to high-resolution grids with application to vaccination coverage mapping.

C E Utazi, J Thorley, V A Alegana, M J Ferrari, K Nilsen, S Takahashi, Cje Metcalf, J Lessler, A J Tatem

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Statistical methods in medical research. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
24citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

24 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  18. Harmonizing child mortality data at disparate geographic levels.Statistical methods in medical research · 2021
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

C E UtaziWorldPop, Department of Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-0534-5310
J ThorleyWorldPop, Department of Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.
V A AleganaWorldPop, Department of Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.
M J FerrariCenter for Infectious Disease Dynamics, The Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA, USA.
K NilsenWorldPop, Department of Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.
S TakahashiDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.
Cje MetcalfDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.
J LesslerDepartment of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.
A J TatemWorldPop, Department of Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.

Funding

Wellcome TrustWellcome Trust 106866/Z/15/ZWellcome Trust 204613/Z/16/Z
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The growing demand for spatially detailed data to advance the Sustainable Development Goals agenda of 'leaving no one behind' has resulted in a shift in focus from aggregate national and province-based metrics to small areas and high-resolution grids in the health and development arena. Vaccination coverage is customarily measured through aggregate-level statistics, which mask fine-scale heterogeneities and 'coldspots' of low coverage. This paper develops a methodology for high-resolution mapping of vaccination coverage using areal data in settings where point-referenced survey data are inaccessible. The proposed methodology is a binomial spatial regression model with a logit link and a combination of covariate data and random effects modelling two levels of spatial autocorrelation in the linear predictor. The principal aspect of the model is the melding of the misaligned areal data and the prediction grid points using the regression component and each of the conditional autoregressive and the Gaussian spatial process random effects. The Bayesian model is fitted using the INLA-SPDE approach. We demonstrate the predictive ability of the model using simulated data sets. The results obtained indicate a good predictive performance by the model, with correlations of between 0.66 and 0.98 obtained at the grid level between true and predicted values. The methodology is applied to predicting the coverage of measles and diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis vaccinations at 5 × 5 km

Indexed as

Spatial RegressionAfghanistanBayes TheoremDatasets as TopicDiphtheria-Tetanus-Pertussis VaccineHumansMaps as TopicMeasles VaccinePakistanPredictive Value of TestsVaccination CoverageDiphtheria-Tetanus-Pertussis VaccineMeasles VaccineBayesian inferenceDemographic and Health SurveysINLA-SPDEspatial misalignmentVaccination coverage

Identifiers

PMID30229698
PMCPMC6745613

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.