Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30216147›Full record

ArticleMicrobial genomics2018

Genome-based transmission modelling separates imported tuberculosis from recent transmission within an immigrant population.

Diepreye Ayabina, Janne O Ronning, Kristian Alfsnes, Nadia Debech, Ola B Brynildsrud, Trude Arnesen, Gunnstein Norheim, Anne-Torunn Mengshoel, Rikard Rykkvin, Ulf R Dahle and 2 more

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Microbial genomics, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
16citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
1.6field-weighted citation impact, top 17% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

16 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 21 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Spatio-temporal patterns of tuberculosis revealed by routineThe Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2026
    Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
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  8. Article
  9. ComparingEpidemiology and infection · 2023
    Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Sudden emergence of aMicrobial genomics · 2020
    Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.

Diepreye Ayabina1​Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London SW7 2AZ, UK.
Janne O Ronning2​Infection Control and Environmental Health, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Lovisengerggata 8, 0456 Oslo, Norway.
Kristian Alfsnes2​Infection Control and Environmental Health, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Lovisengerggata 8, 0456 Oslo, Norway.
Nadia Debech2​Infection Control and Environmental Health, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Lovisengerggata 8, 0456 Oslo, Norway.
Ola B Brynildsrud2​Infection Control and Environmental Health, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Lovisengerggata 8, 0456 Oslo, Norway.
Trude Arnesen2​Infection Control and Environmental Health, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Lovisengerggata 8, 0456 Oslo, Norway.
Gunnstein Norheim2​Infection Control and Environmental Health, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Lovisengerggata 8, 0456 Oslo, Norway.
Anne-Torunn Mengshoel2​Infection Control and Environmental Health, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Lovisengerggata 8, 0456 Oslo, Norway.
Rikard Rykkvin2​Infection Control and Environmental Health, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Lovisengerggata 8, 0456 Oslo, Norway.
Ulf R Dahle2​Infection Control and Environmental Health, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Lovisengerggata 8, 0456 Oslo, Norway.
Caroline Colijn1​Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London SW7 2AZ, UK.
Vegard Eldholm2​Infection Control and Environmental Health, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Lovisengerggata 8, 0456 Oslo, Norway.
Norwegian Institute of Public Health · NOImperial College London · GB

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

In many countries the incidence of tuberculosis (TB) is low and is largely shaped by immigrant populations from high-burden countries. This is the case in Norway, where more than 80 % of TB cases are found among immigrants from high-incidence countries. A variable latent period, low rates of evolution and structured social networks make separating import from within-border transmission a major conundrum to TB control efforts in many low-incidence countries. Clinical Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates belonging to an unusually large genotype cluster associated with people born in the Horn of Africa have been identified in Norway over the last two decades. We modelled transmission based on whole-genome sequence data to estimate infection times for individual patients. By contrasting these estimates with time of arrival in Norway, we estimate on a case-by-case basis whether patients were likely to have been infected before or after arrival. Independent import was responsible for the majority of cases, but we estimate that about one-quarter of the patients had contracted TB in Norway. This study illuminates the transmission dynamics within an immigrant community. Our approach is broadly applicable to many settings where TB control programmes can benefit from understanding when and where patients acquired TB.

Indexed as

Emigrants and ImmigrantsGenotypeTuberculosisWhole Genome SequencingAfricaFemaleHumansMaleMycobacterium tuberculosisNorwaygenome sequencingimmigrationtransmission modellingtuberculosis

Identifiers

PMID30216147
PMCPMC6249437
OpenAlexW2949845804

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.