ArticleClinical epidemiology2018
Demographic shift disproportionately increases cancer burden in an aging nation: current and expected incidence and mortality in Hungary up to 2030.
Article in Clinical epidemiology, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers.
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24 citing papers in PubMed, 38 citations in OpenAlex.
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- Decreasing incidence and mortality of lung cancer in Hungary between 2011 and 2021 revealed by robust estimates reconciling multiple data sources.Pathology oncology research : POR · 2024Article
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- Editorial: Aging and chronic disease: public health challenge and education reform.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- Comparison of primary liver cancer mortality estimates from World Health Organization, global burden disease and global cancer observatory.Liver international : official journal of the International Association for the Study of the Liver · 2022Article
- Breast Tumor Tissue Segmentation with Area-Based Annotation Using Convolutional Neural Network.Diagnostics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
- Kidney biopsy-based epidemiologic analysis shows growing biopsy rate among the elderly.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Smell Detection Agent Optimisation Framework and Systems Biology Approach to Detect Dys-Regulated Subnetwork in Cancer Data.Biomolecules · 2021Article
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- Expression of Krüppel-like factor 9 in breast cancer patients and its effect on prognosis.Oncology letters · 2020Article
- Retrospective Analysis of Cancer-Associated Myositis Patients over the Past 3 Decades in a Hungarian Myositis Cohort.Pathology oncology research : POR · 2020Article
- Development and In Vivo Application of a Water-Soluble Anticancer Copper Ionophore System Using a Temperature-Sensitive Liposome Formulation.Pharmaceutics · 2020Article
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3 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundPopulation aging is a common demographic pattern in developed countries, and aging increases the risk of cancer. The disproportionately high cancer burden, as a consequence, is especially pronounced in Central and Eastern European countries, including Hungary.
methodsWe summarized current and projected future cancer incidences and mortalities utilizing data from the last two decades. Predictions are based on cancer incidence and mortality collected between 1996 and 2015 in Hungary. In addition to the crude rates, data were age standardized to the European standard population (ESP) of 2013, ESP of 1976, and local census of 2011.
resultsThe lifetime probability of developing cancer and cancer-related mortality has already reached 56.9% and 27.6% in men, respectively, and 51.9% and 21.7% in women. Between 2016 and 2030, the total population is expected to shrink by 6%, while the number of 60-year olds and above will grow by 18%. This will lead to a 35% increase in cancer incidence and 30% increase in cancer death among 65-85-year olds. Joinpoint regression identified the period 2007-2015 as starting point for this coming increase in new cases. In women, lung and breast cancer will increase yearly by 1.9% and 1.7%, respectively, between 2016 and 2030, while in men, the prostate and colorectal cancer rates will increase yearly by 3.6% and 2.1%.
conclusionIn the aging population of Hungary, cancer incidence will increase considerably over previous projections. Although a large portion of the most rapidly rising cancers are avoidable by implementing public health programs, a substantial portion remains inevitably incurable.
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