Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30213275›Full record

ArticleBMC medicine2018

Do hotspots fuel malaria transmission: a village-scale spatio-temporal analysis of a 2-year cohort study in The Gambia.

Gillian H Stresman, Julia Mwesigwa, Jane Achan, Emanuele Giorgi, Archibald Worwui, Musa Jawara, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Teun Bousema, Jean-Pierre Van Geertruyden, Chris Drakeley and 1 more

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMC medicine, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
20citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
3.7field-weighted citation impact, top 7% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

20 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 37 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors at 6 institutions in 4 countries.

Gillian H StresmanDepartment of Immunology and Infection, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK. Gillian.Stresman@lshtm.ac.uk.
Julia MwesigwaMedical Research Council Unit The Gambia at London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Fajara, The Gambia.
Jane AchanMedical Research Council Unit The Gambia at London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Fajara, The Gambia.
Emanuele GiorgiCHICAS, Lancaster Medical School, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK.
Archibald WorwuiMedical Research Council Unit The Gambia at London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Fajara, The Gambia.
Musa JawaraMedical Research Council Unit The Gambia at London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Fajara, The Gambia.
Gian Luca Di TannaQueen Mary University of London, London, UK.
Teun BousemaDepartment of Medical Microbology, Radboud Medical University, Nijmegen, The Netherlands.
Jean-Pierre Van GeertruydenUniversity of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium.
Chris DrakeleyDepartment of Immunology and Infection, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Umberto D'AlessandroDepartment of Immunology and Infection, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
University of Antwerp · BELondon School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine · GBLancaster University · GBMRC Unit the Gambia · GMQueen Mary University of London · GBRadboud University Nijmegen · NL

Funding

Medical Research Council MC_EX_MR/J002364/1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundDespite the biological plausibility of hotspots fueling malaria transmission, the evidence to support this concept has been mixed. If transmission spreads from high burden to low burden households in a consistent manner, then this could have important implications for control and elimination program development.

methodsData from a longitudinal cohort in The Gambia was analyzed. All consenting individuals residing in 12 villages across the country were sampled monthly from June (dry season) to December 2013 (wet season), in April 2014 (mid dry season), and monthly from June to December 2014. A study nurse stationed within each village recorded passively detected malaria episodes between visits. Plasmodium falciparum infections were determined by polymerase chain reaction and analyzed using a geostatistical model.

resultsHousehold-level observed monthly incidence ranged from 0 to 0.50 infection per person (interquartile range = 0.02-0.10) across the sampling months, and high burden households exist across all study villages. There was limited evidence of a spatio-temporal pattern at the monthly timescale irrespective of transmission intensity. Within-household transmission was the most plausible hypothesis examined to explain the observed heterogeneity in infections.

conclusionsWithin-village malaria transmission patterns are concentrated in a small proportion of high burden households, but patterns are stochastic regardless of endemicity. Our findings support the notion of transmission occurring at the household and village scales but not the use of a targeted approach to interrupt spreading of infections from high to low burden areas within villages in this setting.

Indexed as

Cohort StudiesEnvironmentFamily CharacteristicsGambiaHumansIncidenceLongitudinal StudiesMalaria, FalciparumMalePlasmodium falciparumSeasonsSpatio-Temporal AnalysisYoung AdultCohortFociGeostatisticsHotspotSpatial epidemiology

Identifiers

PMID30213275
PMCPMC6137946
OpenAlexW2889270808

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.