Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30209239›Full record

ArticleNeurology2018

Antiepileptic drug treatment after an unprovoked first seizure: A decision analysis.

Erik L Bao, Ling-Ya Chao, Peiyun Ni, Lidia M V R Moura, Andrew J Cole, Sydney S Cash, Daniel B Hoch, Matt T Bianchi, M Brandon Westover

Abstract readComparative Study
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Neurology, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
8citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

8 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Review
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. A Theoretical Paradigm for Evaluating Risk-Benefit of Status Epilepticus Treatment.Journal of clinical neurophysiology : official publication of the American Electroencephalographic Society · 2020
    Review
  7. Refining General Principles of Antiepileptic Drug Treatments for Epilepsy.Journal of clinical neurology (Seoul, Korea) · 2020
    Review
  8. Epilepsy Education: Recent Advances and Future Directions.Current neurology and neuroscience reports · 2019
    Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Erik L BaoFrom Harvard-MIT Health Sciences and Technology (E.L.B., L.-Y.C., P.N.), Harvard Medical School; and Department of Neurology (L.M.V.R.M., A.J.C., S.S.C., D.B.H., M.T.B., M.B.W.), Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston.
Ling-Ya ChaoFrom Harvard-MIT Health Sciences and Technology (E.L.B., L.-Y.C., P.N.), Harvard Medical School; and Department of Neurology (L.M.V.R.M., A.J.C., S.S.C., D.B.H., M.T.B., M.B.W.), Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston.
Peiyun NiFrom Harvard-MIT Health Sciences and Technology (E.L.B., L.-Y.C., P.N.), Harvard Medical School; and Department of Neurology (L.M.V.R.M., A.J.C., S.S.C., D.B.H., M.T.B., M.B.W.), Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston.
Lidia M V R MouraFrom Harvard-MIT Health Sciences and Technology (E.L.B., L.-Y.C., P.N.), Harvard Medical School; and Department of Neurology (L.M.V.R.M., A.J.C., S.S.C., D.B.H., M.T.B., M.B.W.), Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston.
Andrew J ColeFrom Harvard-MIT Health Sciences and Technology (E.L.B., L.-Y.C., P.N.), Harvard Medical School; and Department of Neurology (L.M.V.R.M., A.J.C., S.S.C., D.B.H., M.T.B., M.B.W.), Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston.
Sydney S CashFrom Harvard-MIT Health Sciences and Technology (E.L.B., L.-Y.C., P.N.), Harvard Medical School; and Department of Neurology (L.M.V.R.M., A.J.C., S.S.C., D.B.H., M.T.B., M.B.W.), Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston.
Daniel B HochFrom Harvard-MIT Health Sciences and Technology (E.L.B., L.-Y.C., P.N.), Harvard Medical School; and Department of Neurology (L.M.V.R.M., A.J.C., S.S.C., D.B.H., M.T.B., M.B.W.), Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston.
Matt T BianchiFrom Harvard-MIT Health Sciences and Technology (E.L.B., L.-Y.C., P.N.), Harvard Medical School; and Department of Neurology (L.M.V.R.M., A.J.C., S.S.C., D.B.H., M.T.B., M.B.W.), Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston.
M Brandon WestoverFrom Harvard-MIT Health Sciences and Technology (E.L.B., L.-Y.C., P.N.), Harvard Medical School; and Department of Neurology (L.M.V.R.M., A.J.C., S.S.C., D.B.H., M.T.B., M.B.W.), Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston. mwestover@mgh.harvard.edu.

Funding

Quantitative Monitoring and Control of Sedation and Pain in the ICU EnvironmentK23NS090900 · NINDS · MASSACHUSETTS GENERAL HOSPITAL · PI WESTOVER, MICHAEL BRANDON · 2014 to 2018
$988k
NINDS NIH HHS K23 NS090900
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveTo compare the expected quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) in adult patients undergoing immediate vs deferred antiepileptic drug (AED) treatment after a first unprovoked seizure.

methodsWe constructed a simulated clinical trial (Markov decision model) to compare immediate vs deferred AED treatment after a first unprovoked seizure in adults. Three base cases were considered, representing patients with varying degrees of seizure recurrence risk and effect of seizures on quality of life (QOL). Cohort simulation was performed to determine which treatment strategy would maximize the patient's expected QALYs. Sensitivity analyses were guided by clinical data to define decision thresholds across plausible measurement ranges, including seizure recurrence rate, effect of seizure recurrence on QOL, and efficacy of AEDs.

resultsFor patients with a moderate risk of recurrent seizures (52.0% over 10 years after first seizure), immediate AED treatment maximized QALYs compared to deferred treatment. Sensitivity analyses showed that for the preferred choice to change to deferred AED treatment, key clinical measures needed to reach implausible values were 10-year seizure recurrence rate ≤38.0%, QOL reduction with recurrent seizures ≤0.06, and efficacy of AEDs on lowering seizure recurrence rate ≤16.3%.

conclusionOur model determined that immediate AED treatment is preferable to deferred treatment in adult first-seizure patients over a wide and clinically relevant range of variables. Furthermore, our analysis suggests that the 10-year seizure recurrence rate that justifies AED treatment (38.0%) is substantially lower than the 60% threshold used in the current definition of epilepsy.

Indexed as

AdultAnticonvulsantsClinical Decision-MakingClinical Trials as TopicComputer SimulationDecision Support TechniquesFemaleHumansMaleMarkov ChainsMiddle AgedQuality-Adjusted Life YearsQuality of LifeRecurrenceSeizuresTime FactorsAnticonvulsants

Identifiers

PMID30209239
PMCPMC6177278

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.