ArticleJournal of the Royal Society, Interface2018
Epidemic dynamics, interactions and predictability of enteroviruses associated with hand, foot and mouth disease in Japan.
Article in Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 29 papers.
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Who cites it
29 citing papers in PubMed.
- Article
- Dynamic changes of hand, foot, and mouth disease epidemic crossing three periods in Jiangxi Province, China: a long-term epidemiology retrospective study from 2009 to 2022.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Effect of Educational Activities on Pediatricians Prescribing Oral Antibiotics in Pediatric Emergency Rooms.Cureus · 2025Article
- Hand, foot and mouth disease incidence in mainland China: temporal trends and projections to 2030.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Epidemiological trends of hand, foot, and mouth disease in children under age 10, Jiangning District, Jiangsu, China (2009-2023).BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Spatio-temporal dynamics of hand, foot and mouth disease in Malaysia, 2009-2019.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2025Article
- Analysis and forecast of hand, foot, and mouth disease epidemic trends in Guangzhou, China, 2013-2023.PloS one · 2025Article
- Article
- Increasing intensity of enterovirus outbreaks projected with climate change.Nature communications · 2024Article
- Age-time-specific transmission of hand-foot-and-mouth disease enterovirus serotypes in Vietnam: A catalytic model with maternal immunity.Epidemics · 2024Article
- Emerging Enterovirus A71 Subgenogroup B5 Causing Severe Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease, Vietnam, 2023.Emerging infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Estimating prevalence of Enterovirus D111 in human and non-human primate populations using cross-sectional serology.The Journal of general virology · 2023Article
- Molecular evolutionary dynamics of enterovirus A71, coxsackievirus A16 and coxsackievirus A6 causing hand, foot and mouth disease in Thailand, 2000-2022.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Article
- DNA methylation and single-nucleotide polymorphisms in DDX58 are associated with hand, foot and mouth disease caused by enterovirus 71.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2022Article
- Prediction of hand, foot, and mouth disease epidemics in Japan using a long short-term memory approach.PloS one · 2022Article
- Molecular surveillance of coxsackievirus A16 in southern China, 2008-2019.Archives of virology · 2021Article
- Epidemiological dynamics of enterovirus D68 in the US: implications for acute flaccid myelitis.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2021Article
- Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Thailand: A Comprehensive Modelling of Epidemic Dynamics.Computational and mathematical methods in medicine · 2021Article
- Early Evidence of Inactivated Enterovirus 71 Vaccine Impact Against Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in a Major Center of Ongoing Transmission in China, 2011-2018: A Longitudinal Surveillance Study.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
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11 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Outbreaks of hand, foot and mouth disease have been documented in Japan since 1963. This disease is primarily caused by the two closely related serotypes of Enterovirus A71 (EV-A71) and Coxsackievirus A16 (CV-A16). Here, we analyse Japanese virologic and syndromic surveillance time-series data from 1982 to 2015. As in some other countries in the Asia Pacific region, EV-A71 in Japan has a 3 year cyclical component, whereas CV-A16 is predominantly annual. We observe empirical signatures of an inhibitory interaction between the serotypes; virologic lines of evidence suggest they may indeed interact immunologically. We fit the time series to mechanistic epidemiological models: as a first-order effect, we find the data consistent with single-serotype susceptible-infected-recovered dynamics. We then extend the modelling to incorporate an inhibitory interaction between serotypes. Our results suggest the existence of a transient cross-protection and possible asymmetry in its strength such that CV-A16 serves as a stronger forcing on EV-A71. Allowing for asymmetry yields accurate out-of-sample predictions and the directionality of this effect is consistent with the virologic literature. Confirmation of these hypothesized interactions would have important implications for understanding enterovirus epidemiology and informing vaccine development. Our results highlight the general implication that even subtle interactions could have qualitative impacts on epidemic dynamics and predictability.
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