SynthesisBMC musculoskeletal disorders2018
Physical prognostic factors predicting outcome following lumbar discectomy surgery: systematic review and narrative synthesis.
Synthesis in BMC musculoskeletal disorders, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 29 papers, 5 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
29 citing papers in PubMed, 5 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 50 citations in OpenAlex.
- The effect of symptom duration on the outcomes of lumbar discectomy for radicular pain secondary to lumbar disc herniation: a systematic review and meta-analysis.European spine journal : official publication of the European Spine Society, the European Spinal Deformity Society, and the European Section of the Cervical Spine Research Society · 2025Pooled it
- Pooled it
- Prognostic factors associated with outcome following an epidural steroid injection for disc-related sciatica: a systematic review and narrative synthesis.European spine journal : official publication of the European Spine Society, the European Spinal Deformity Society, and the European Section of the Cervical Spine Research Society · 2023Pooled it
- Prognostic factors for outcome following lumbar spine fusion surgery: a systematic review and narrative synthesis.European spine journal : official publication of the European Spine Society, the European Spinal Deformity Society, and the European Section of the Cervical Spine Research Society · 2022Pooled it
- Clinical course of pain and disability following primary lumbar discectomy: systematic review and meta-analysis.European spine journal : official publication of the European Spine Society, the European Spinal Deformity Society, and the European Section of the Cervical Spine Research Society · 2020Pooled it
- Effect of Duration of Symptoms on the Clinical and Functional Outcomes of Lumbar Microdiscectomy: A Randomized Controlled Trial.Orthopaedic surgery · 2022Trial
- Preoperative patient expectations and postoperative satisfaction following singlelevel unilateral biportal endoscopic lumbar discectomy: Are higher expectations associated with lower satisfaction?Acta orthopaedica et traumatologica turcica · 2026Article
- Associations between preoperative biomarkers and patient-reported outcomes after single-level lumbar discectomy: a systematic review.Journal of spine surgery (Hong Kong) · 2026Review
- Outcomes of Percutaneous Laser Disc Decompression for Lumbar Disc Herniation: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Spine surgery and related research · 2026Review
- Bracing and Activity Restriction After Lumbar Discectomy Surgery: An International Survey of AO Spine Members.Neurospine · 2026Article
- The Duration of Symptoms Influences Outcomes After Lumbar Microdiscectomies: A Michigan Spine Surgery Improvement Collaborative.Global spine journal · 2025Article
- Increase in (semi-) acute non-instrumented lumbar spine surgeries during the COVID-19 pandemic.Brain & spine · 2025Article
- Factors predicting outcomes from chronic pain management interventions.BMJ medicine · 2025Review
- Predictors of outcome following an epidural steroid injection for disc-related sciatica: a Delphi consensus study.European spine journal : official publication of the European Spine Society, the European Spinal Deformity Society, and the European Section of the Cervical Spine Research Society · 2024Article
- Concurrent Chronic Exertional Compartment Syndrome and Popliteal Artery Entrapment Syndrome.Diagnostics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- Screening patients requiring secondary lumbar surgery for degenerative lumbar spine diseases: a nationwide sample cohort study.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Preoperative Motor Function Associated with Short-Term Gain of Health-Related Quality of Life after Surgery for Lumbar Degenerative Disease: A Pilot Prospective Cohort Study in Japan.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Identifying Subsets of Patients With Adult Spinal Deformity Who Maintained a Positive Response to Nonoperative Management.Neurosurgery · 2023Article
- Predictors of poor outcome following lumbar spinal fusion surgery: a prospective observational study to derive two clinical prediction rules using British Spine Registry data.European spine journal : official publication of the European Spine Society, the European Spinal Deformity Society, and the European Section of the Cervical Spine Research Society · 2023Observational
- Review
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
4 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundSuccess rates for lumbar discectomy are estimated as 78-95% patients at 1-2 years post-surgery, supporting its effectiveness. However, ongoing pain and disability is an issue for some patients, and recurrence contributing to reoperation is reported. It is important to identify prognostic factors predicting outcome to inform decision-making for surgery and rehabilitation following surgery. The objective was to determine whether pre-operative physical factors are associated with post-operative outcomes in adult patients [≥16 years old] undergoing lumbar discectomy or microdiscectomy.
methodsA systematic review was conducted according to a registered protocol [PROSPERO CRD42015024168]. Key electronic databases were searched [PubMed, CINAHL, EMBASE, MEDLINE, PEDro and ZETOC] using pre-defined terms [e.g. radicular pain] to 31/3/2017; with additional searching of journals, reference lists and unpublished literature. Prospective cohort studies with ≥1-year follow-up, evaluating candidate physical prognostic factors [e.g. leg pain intensity and straight leg raise test], in adult patients undergoing lumbar discectomy/microdiscectomy were included. Two reviewers independently searched information sources, evaluated studies for inclusion, extracted data, and assessed risk of bias [QUIPS]. GRADE determined the overall quality of evidence.
results1189 title and abstracts and 45 full texts were assessed, to include 6 studies; 1 low and 5 high risk of bias. Meta-analysis was not possible [risk of bias, clinical heterogeneity]. A narrative synthesis was performed. There is low level evidence that higher severity of pre-operative leg pain predicts better Core Outcome Measures Index at 12 months and better post-operative leg pain at 2 and 7 years. There is very low level evidence that a lower pre-operative EQ-5D predicts better EQ-5D at 2 years. Low level evidence supports duration of leg pain pre-operatively not being associated with outcome, and very low-quality evidence supports other factors [pre-operative ODI, duration back pain, severity back pain, ipsilateral SLR and forward bend] not being associated with outcome [range of outcome measures used].
conclusionAn adequately powered low risk of bias prospective observational study is required to further investigate candidate physical prognostic factors owing to existing low/very-low level of evidence.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.