Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30192808›Full record

ArticlePloS one2018

Prediction model for pancreatic cancer risk in the general Japanese population.

Masahiro Nakatochi, Yingsong Lin, Hidemi Ito, Kazuo Hara, Fumie Kinoshita, Yumiko Kobayashi, Hiroshi Ishii, Masato Ozaka, Takashi Sasaki, Naoki Sasahira and 15 more

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in PloS one, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 26 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
26citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
1.9field-weighted citation impact, top 11% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

26 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 53 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Diagnostic Risk Prediction Models for Upper Gastrointestinal Cancers: A Systematic Review.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2025
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  16. Do Polygenic Risk Scores Add to Clinical Data in Predicting Pancreatic Cancer? A Scoping Review.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2023
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

25 authors at 11 institutions in 1 country.

Masahiro NakatochiDivision of Data Science, Data Coordinating Center, Department of Advanced Medicine, Nagoya University Hospital, Nagoya, Japan.
Yingsong LinDepartment of Public Health, Aichi Medical University School of Medicine, Nagakute, Japan.ORCID 0000-0003-0214-3649
Hidemi ItoDivision of Cancer Information and Control, Aichi Cancer Center Research Institute, Nagoya, Japan.
Kazuo HaraDepartment of Gastroenterology, Aichi Cancer Center Hospital, Nagoya, Japan.
Fumie KinoshitaDivision of Data Science, Data Coordinating Center, Department of Advanced Medicine, Nagoya University Hospital, Nagoya, Japan.
Yumiko KobayashiDivision of Data Science, Data Coordinating Center, Department of Advanced Medicine, Nagoya University Hospital, Nagoya, Japan.
Hiroshi IshiiClinical Research Center, National Hospital Organization Shikoku Cancer Center, Matsuyama, Japan.
Masato OzakaDepartment of Hepato-biliary-pancreatic Medicine, The Cancer Institute Hospital of Japanese Foundation for Cancer Research, Tokyo, Japan.ORCID 0000-0002-5666-1970
Takashi SasakiDepartment of Hepato-biliary-pancreatic Medicine, The Cancer Institute Hospital of Japanese Foundation for Cancer Research, Tokyo, Japan.
Naoki SasahiraDepartment of Hepato-biliary-pancreatic Medicine, The Cancer Institute Hospital of Japanese Foundation for Cancer Research, Tokyo, Japan.
Manabu MorimotoHepatobiliary and Pancreatic Medical Oncology Division, Kanagawa Cancer Center Hospital, Kanagawa, Japan.
Satoshi KobayashiHepatobiliary and Pancreatic Medical Oncology Division, Kanagawa Cancer Center Hospital, Kanagawa, Japan.
Makoto UenoHepatobiliary and Pancreatic Medical Oncology Division, Kanagawa Cancer Center Hospital, Kanagawa, Japan.
Shinichi OhkawaHepatobiliary and Pancreatic Medical Oncology Division, Kanagawa Cancer Center Hospital, Kanagawa, Japan.
Naoto EgawaTokyo Metropolitan Hiroo Hospital, Tokyo, Japan.
Sawako KurumaDepartment of Internal Medicine, Tokyo Metropolitan Komagome Hospital, Tokyo, Japan.
Mitsuru MoriHokkaido Chitose College of Rehabilitation, Hokkaido, Japan.
Haruhisa NakaoDivision of Hepatology and Pancreatology, Aichi Medical University School of Medicine, Nagakute, Japan.
Chaochen WangDepartment of Public Health, Aichi Medical University School of Medicine, Nagakute, Japan.
Takeshi NishiyamaDepartment of Public Health, Nagoya City University Graduate School of Medicine, Nagoya, Japan.
Takahisa KawaguchiCenter for Genomic Medicine, Graduate School of Medicine, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan.
Meiko TakahashiCenter for Genomic Medicine, Graduate School of Medicine, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan.
Fumihiko MatsudaCenter for Genomic Medicine, Graduate School of Medicine, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan.
Shogo KikuchiDepartment of Public Health, Aichi Medical University School of Medicine, Nagakute, Japan.
Keitaro MatsuoDivision of Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention, Aichi Cancer Center Research Institute, Nagoya, Japan.
Aichi Medical University · JPKanagawa Prefectural Hospital Organization · JPAichi Cancer Center · JPKyoto University · JPNagoya University Hospital · JPThe Cancer Institute Hospital · JPHokkaido Chitose College of Rehabilitation · JPNagoya City University · JPShikoku Cancer Center · JPTokyo Metropolitan Hiroo Hospital · JPTokyo Metropolitan Komagome Hospital · JP

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have identified many single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that are significantly associated with pancreatic cancer susceptibility. We sought to replicate the associations of 61 GWAS-identified SNPs at 42 loci with pancreatic cancer in Japanese and to develop a risk model for the identification of individuals at high risk for pancreatic cancer development in the general Japanese population. The model was based on data including directly determined or imputed SNP genotypes for 664 pancreatic cancer case and 664 age- and sex-matched control subjects. Stepwise logistic regression uncovered five GWAS-identified SNPs at five loci that also showed significant associations in our case-control cohort. These five SNPs were included in the risk model and also applied to calculation of the polygenic risk score (PRS). The area under the curve determined with the leave-one-out cross-validation method was 0.63 (95% confidence interval, 0.60-0.66) or 0.61 (0.58-0.64) for versions of the model that did or did not include cigarette smoking and family history of pancreatic cancer in addition to the five SNPs, respectively. Individuals in the lowest and highest quintiles for the PRS had odds ratios of 0.62 (0.42-0.91) and 1.98 (1.42-2.76), respectively, for pancreatic cancer development compared with those in the middle quintile. We have thus developed a risk model for pancreatic cancer that showed moderately good discriminatory ability with regard to differentiation of pancreatic cancer patients from control individuals. Our findings suggest the potential utility of a risk model that incorporates replicated GWAS-identified SNPs and established demographic or environmental factors for the identification of individuals at increased risk for pancreatic cancer development.

Indexed as

Polymorphism, Single NucleotideAgedAllelesAsian PeopleCase-Control StudiesCohort StudiesFemaleGene FrequencyGenetic Predisposition to DiseaseGenome-Wide Association StudyGenotypeHumansJapanLogistic ModelsMaleMiddle Aged

Identifiers

PMID30192808
PMCPMC6128543
OpenAlexW2891825751

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.