ArticleJournal of general internal medicine2019
Independent Relationship of Changes in Death Rates with Changes in US Presidential Voting.
Article in Journal of general internal medicine, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
12 citing papers in PubMed, 34 citations in OpenAlex.
- Exploring the influence of electoral political orientation on health outcomes: a scoping review.Cadernos de saude publica · 2026Article
- The role of health and health systems in shaping political engagement and rebuilding trust in democratic institutions.The Lancet regional health. Europe · 2025Review
- The health costs of losing political representation: Evidence from U.S. Presidential Elections.PloS one · 2025Article
- Association Between Partisan Affiliation of State Governments and State Mortality Rates Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic.The Milbank quarterly · 2023Article
- Article
- Political environment and mortality rates in the United States, 2001-19: population based cross sectional analysis.BMJ (Clinical research ed.) · 2022Article
- Do individuals' attitudes toward immigrants affect their own health? Analysis of 15 European countries.European journal of public health · 2022Article
- Deaths of Despair and Brexit Votes: Cross-Local Authority Statistical Analysis in England and Wales.American journal of public health · 2020Article
- Growing sense of social status threat and concomitant deaths of despair among whites.SSM - population health · 2019Article
- Making America Great.Journal of general internal medicine · 2019Article
- Political parties and mortality: The role of social status and personal responsibility.Social science & medicine (1982) · 2019Article
- Article
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Authors and funding
6 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThe outcome of the 2016 presidential election is commonly attributed to socioeconomic and ethnic/racial issues, but health issues, including "deaths of despair," may also have contributed.
objectiveTo assess whether changes in age-adjusted death rates were independently associated with changes in presidential election voting in 2016 vs. 2008.
designWe used publicly available data in each of 3112 US counties to correlate changes in a county's presidential voting in 2016 compared with 2008 with recent changes in its age-adjusted death rate, after controlling for population and rural-urban status, median age, race/ethnicity, income, education, unemployment rate, and health insurance rate. DESIGN
settingCross-sectional analysis of county-specific data. SETTING/
participantsAll 3112 US counties. MAIN MEASURES: The independent correlation of a county's change in age-adjusted death rate between 2000 and 2015 with its net percentage Republican gain or loss in the presidential election of 2016 vs. 2008. KEY
resultsIn 2016, President Trump increased the Republican presidential vote percentage in 83.8% of counties compared with Senator McCain in 2008. Counties with an increased Republican vote percentage in 2016 vs. 2008 had a 15% higher 2015 age-adjusted death rate than counties with an increased Democratic vote percentage. Since 2000, overall death rates declined by less than half as much, and death rates from drugs, alcohol, and suicide increased 2.5 times as much in counties with Republican gains compared with counties with Democratic gains. In multivariable analyses, Republican net presidential gain in 2016 vs. 2008 was independently correlated with slower reductions in a county's age-adjusted death rate. Although correlation cannot infer causality, modest reductions in death rates might theoretically have shifted Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin to Secretary Clinton.
conclusionsLess of a reduction in age-adjusted death rates was an independent correlate of an increased Republican percentage vote in 2016 vs. 2008. Death rates may be markers of dissatisfactions and fears that influenced the 2016 Presidential election outcomes.
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What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.