Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30183713›Full record

ArticlePloS one2018

Understanding meta-population trends of the Australian fur seal, with insights for adaptive monitoring.

Rebecca R McIntosh, Steve P Kirkman, Sam Thalmann, Duncan R Sutherland, Anthony Mitchell, John P Y Arnould, Marcus Salton, David J Slip, Peter Dann, Roger Kirkwood

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in PloS one, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
15citing papers in PubMed
4.5field-weighted citation impact, top 5% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

15 citing papers in PubMed, 52 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Article
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  3. Declining Abundance and Variable Condition of Fur Seal (Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2025
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors at 5 institutions in 2 countries.

Rebecca R McIntoshResearch Department, Phillip Island Nature Parks, Cowes, Victoria, Australia.ORCID 0000-0003-3159-9581
Steve P KirkmanDepartment of Environmental Affairs, Oceans and Coasts Research, Victoria and Alfred Waterfront, Cape Town, South Africa.
Sam ThalmannDepartment of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia.
Duncan R SutherlandResearch Department, Phillip Island Nature Parks, Cowes, Victoria, Australia.
Anthony MitchellDepartment of Environment, Land, Water and Planning, Orbost, Victoria, Australia.
John P Y ArnouldSchool of Biological and Chemical Sciences, Deakin University, Burwood, Victoria, Australia.
Marcus SaltonResearch Department, Phillip Island Nature Parks, Cowes, Victoria, Australia.
David J SlipDepartment of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, North Ryde, New South Wales, Australia.
Peter DannResearch Department, Phillip Island Nature Parks, Cowes, Victoria, Australia.
Roger KirkwoodWageningen Marine Research, Den Helder, The Netherlands.
Parks Victoria · AUDeakin University · AUDepartment of Natural Resources and Environment Tasmania · AUTaronga Conservation Society Australia · AUUniversity of Cape Town · ZA

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Effective ecosystem-based management requires estimates of abundance and population trends of species of interest. Trend analyses are often limited due to sparse or short-term abundance estimates for populations that can be logistically difficult to monitor over time. Therefore it is critical to assess regularly the quality of the metrics in long-term monitoring programs. For a monitoring program to provide meaningful data and remain relevant, it needs to incorporate technological improvements and the changing requirements of stakeholders, while maintaining the integrity of the data. In this paper we critically examine the monitoring program for the Australian fur seal (AFS) Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus as an example of an ad-hoc monitoring program that was co-ordinated across multiple stakeholders as a range-wide census of live pups in the Austral summers of 2002, 2007 and 2013. This 5-yearly census, combined with historic counts at individual sites, successfully tracked increasing population trends as signs of population recovery up to 2007. The 2013 census identified the first reduction in AFS pup numbers (14,248 live pups, -4.2% change per annum since 2007), however we have limited information to understand this change. We analyse the trends at breeding colonies and perform a power analysis to critically examine the reliability of those trends. We then assess the gaps in the monitoring program and discuss how we may transition this surveillance style program to an adaptive monitoring program than can evolve over time and achieve its goals. The census results are used for ecosystem-based modelling for fisheries management and emergency response planning. The ultimate goal for this program is to obtain the data we need with minimal cost, effort and impact on the fur seals. In conclusion we identify the importance of power analyses for interpreting trends, the value of regularly assessing long-term monitoring programs and proper design so that adaptive monitoring principles can be applied.

Indexed as

Ecological Parameter MonitoringEcosystemModels, BiologicalAnimalsAustraliaFemaleFur SealsMalePopulation Dynamics

Identifiers

PMID30183713
PMCPMC6124711
OpenAlexW2889761677

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.