Short-Term Trend Forecast of Different Traffic Pollutants in Minnesota Based on Spot Velocity Conversion.

Because traffic pollution is a global problem, the prediction of traffic emissions and the analysis of their influencing factors is the key to adopting management and control measures to reduce traffic emissions. Hence, the evaluation of the actual level of traffic emissions has gained more interest. The Computer Program to calculate Emissions from Road Transport model (COPERT) is being downloaded by 100 users per month and is being used in a large number of applications. This paper uses this model to calculate short-term vehicle emissions. The difference from the traditional research was that the input velocity parameter was not the empirical value, but through reasonable conversion of the spot velocity at one point, obtained by the roadside detector, which provided new ideas for predicting traffic emissions by the COPERT model. The hybrid Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Model was used to predict spot mean velocity, after converted it to the predicted interval velocity averaged for some period, input the conversion results and other parameters into the COPERT IV model to forecast short-term vehicle emissions. Six common emissions (CO, NO