ArticleInternational wound journal2019
A risk model for the prediction of skin tears in aged care residents: A prospective cohort study.
Article in International wound journal, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Risk factors for skin tears in the older adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Frontiers in public health · 2026Pooled it
- Sampling the skin surface chemistry for diagnosis and prognosis.Wound repair and regeneration : official publication of the Wound Healing Society [and] the European Tissue Repair Society · 2022Pooled it
- Knowledge status of skin tear prevention and its demographic and occupational influencing factors: A National cross-sectional survey among nurses.Journal of advanced nursing · 2025Article
- External validation of a predictive model for aged-related skin tears in Fitzpatrick skin types I-IV cohort.International wound journal · 2024Article
- Effects of a leave-on product on the strength of the dermoepidermal junction: An exploratory, intraindividual, randomized controlled trial in older adults with dry skin.Health science reports · 2024Article
- Relationship between dry skin and pressure injury in older patients: A multicentre cross-sectional survey in China.International wound journal · 2023Article
- Models for predicting skin tears: A comparison.International wound journal · 2020Article
- Exploring the prevalence and management of wounds for people with dementia in long-term care.International wound journal · 2020Observational
- ISTAP classification for skin tears: Validation for Brazilian Portuguese.International wound journal · 2020Article
- A risk model for the prediction of skin tears in aged care residents: A prospective cohort study.International wound journal · 2019Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The objective of this study was to construct a predictive model to identify aged care residents at risk of future skin tears. Extensive data about individual characteristics, skin characteristics, and skin properties were gathered from 173 participants at baseline and at 6 months. A predictive model, developed using multivariable logistic regression, identified five variables that significantly predicted the risk of skin tear at 6 months. These included: a history of skin tears in the previous 12 months (OR 3.82 [1.64-8.90], P = 0.002), purpura ≤20 mm in size (OR 3.64 [1.42-9.35], P = 0.007), a history of falls in the previous 3 months (OR 3.37 [1.54-7.41], P = 0.002), clinical manifestations of elastosis (OR 3.19 [1.38-7.38], P = 0.007), and male gender (OR 3.08 [1.22-7.77], P = 0.017). The predictive model yielded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.854 with an 81.7% sensitivity and an 81.4% specificity. This predictive model could inform a simple but promising bedside tool for identifying older individuals at risk of skin tears.
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