ArticleSocial psychiatry and psychiatric epidemiology2019
Historical trends in suicide risk for the residents of mainland China: APC modeling of the archived national suicide mortality rates during 1987-2012.
Article in Social psychiatry and psychiatric epidemiology, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 23 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
23 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Prevalence of suicidal thoughts and behaviors among individuals with mental disorders in Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis of the past 25 years.BMC psychiatry · 2026Pooled it
- The mediating role of depressive symptoms in the relationship between health literacy and suicide-related behaviors in middle school students.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Chinese burden of depressive disorders from 1990 to 2021 and prediction for 2030: analysis of data from the global burden of disease study 2021.BMC psychology · 2025Article
- Age-Period-Cohort analysis and 2036 projections of the burden of ischemic stroke in Finland, Korea, Singapore and China, 1990-2021.Frontiers in neurology · 2025Article
- The trend of suicide and self-harm in the Chinese population from 2018 to 2022 based on ambulance medical emergency cases: a retrospective study.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Risk and protective factors of suicidal tendencies among freshmen in China revealed by a hierarchical regression model.European child & adolescent psychiatry · 2024Article
- Risk factors and their association network for young adults' suicidality: a cross-sectional study.BMC public health · 2024Article
- The long-term changing patterns of suicide mortality in China from 1987 to 2020: continuing urban-rural disparity.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Trends in the disease burden of anxiety disorders in middle-aged and older adults in China.BMC psychology · 2024Article
- Secular trends in the incidence of major depressive disorder and dysthymia in China from 1990 to 2019.BMC public health · 2023Article
- Suicide Mortality by Place, Gender, and Age Group - China, 2010-2021.China CDC weekly · 2023Article
- Trends of suicide rates by gender and residence in China from 2002 to 2019.SSM - population health · 2023Article
- Suicide in China: The power of social and economic change.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2022Article
- Role of Foreign-Born Status on Suicide Mortality in Spain Between 2000 and 2019: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis.International journal of public health · 2022Article
- Investigating the paradox of increasing obesity and declining heart disease mortality in the United States: Age-period-cohort model.Frontiers in cardiovascular medicine · 2022Article
- Prediction model for suicide based on back propagation neural network and multilayer perceptron.Frontiers in neuroinformatics · 2022Article
- Age, period, and cohort effects on suicide death in the United States from 1999 to 2018: moderation by sex, race, and firearm involvement.Molecular psychiatry · 2021Article
- Time Trends and Predictions of Suicide Mortality for People Aged 70 Years and Over From 1990 to 2030 Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.Frontiers in psychiatry · 2021Article
- Age patterns of suicide with different methods for US Whites: APC modelling analysis of the 1999-2017 national data.Epidemiology and psychiatric sciences · 2020Article
- Health personnel-targeted education interventions on inpatient suicide prevention in general hospitals: A scoping review.International journal of nursing sciences · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
Abstract
purposeDistinctive and dramatic changes in the history of China with a rapid suicide decline in recent years present an opportunity to investigate the risk of suicide. In this study, we investigated suicide risk with a historical perspective with archived data to inform suicide research and prevention policies and strategies.
methodDocumented age-specific suicide mortality rates in 1987-2012 were decomposed into age, period, and cohort effect using APC-modeling method and intrinsic estimator (IE) technique. The estimated effects were further analyzed by numerical differentiation.
resultsThe data satisfactorily fit the constructed APC models. Cohort effect indicated that suicide risk in China fluctuated at very high levels during 1903-1967, followed by a sharp decline during 1968-1977, and reached the lowest level in 1983-1987 before increased again. Period effect confirmed the declining trend since 1987. Three sunny cohorts with reduced suicide risk and four cloudy cohorts with increased risk were, respectively, associated with significant cultural, social, political, and economic events in China since the 1900s.
conclusionsThe mega trends in the suicide risk at the population level are closely related to significant historical events in China. Suicide is anticipated to increase because of the growing risk for the young cohorts (particularly young females) as the country further develops. Study findings suggest the significance of national strategies for suicide prevention and control, including maintenance of social harmony and stability, provision of more opportunities for development, enhancement of social integration, and restriction of suicide facilitating factors.
Indexed as
Identifiers
30171272What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.