Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30157904›Full record

ArticleTrials2018

The inclusion of real world evidence in clinical development planning.

Reynaldo Martina, David Jenkins, Sylwia Bujkiewicz, Pascale Dequen, Keith Abrams, GetReal Workpackage 1

Abstract readNetwork Meta-Analysis
In one paragraph

Article in Trials, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
13citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

13 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  4. Observational
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  7. Review
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Reynaldo MartinaDepartment of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, University Road, Leicester, UK. reynaldo.martina@liverpool.ac.uk.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1925-820X
David JenkinsDepartment of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, University Road, Leicester, UK.
Sylwia BujkiewiczDepartment of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, University Road, Leicester, UK.
Pascale DequenDepartment of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, University Road, Leicester, UK.
Keith AbramsDepartment of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, University Road, Leicester, UK.
GetReal Workpackage 1

Funding

IMI-GetReal 115546Medical Research Council MR/L009854/1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundWhen designing studies it is common to search the literature to investigate variability estimates to use in sample size calculations. Proprietary data of previously designed trials in a particular indication are also used to obtain estimates of variability. Estimates of treatment effects are typically obtained from randomised controlled clinical trials (RCTs). Based on the observed estimates of treatment effect, variability and the minimum clinical relevant difference to detect, the sample size for a subsequent trial is estimated. However, data from real world evidence (RWE) studies, such as observational studies and other interventional studies in patients in routine clinical practice, are not widely used in a systematic manner when designing studies. In this paper, we propose a framework for inclusion of RWE in planning of a clinical development programme.

methodsIn our proposed approach, all evidence, from both RCTs and RWE (i.e. from studies in routine clinical practice), available at the time of designing of a new clinical trial is combined in a Bayesian network meta-analysis (NMA). The results can be used to inform the design of the next clinical trial in the programme. The NMA was performed at key milestones, such as at the end of the phase II trial and prior to the design of key phase III studies. To illustrate the methods, we designed an alternative clinical development programme in multiple sclerosis using RWE through clinical trial simulations.

resultsInclusion of RWE in the NMA and the resulting trial simulations demonstrated that 284 patients per arm were needed to achieve 90% power to detect effects of predetermined size in the TRANSFORMS study. For the FREEDOMS and FREEDOMS II clinical trials, 189 patients per arm were required. Overall there was a reduction in sample size of at least 40% across the three phase III studies, which translated to a time savings of at least 6 months for the undertaking of the fingolimod phase III programme.

conclusionThe use of RWE resulted in a reduced sample size of the pivotal phase III studies, which led to substantial time savings compared to the approach of sample size calculations without RWE.

Indexed as

Research DesignBayes TheoremClinical Trials, Phase II as TopicClinical Trials, Phase III as TopicComputer SimulationEvidence-Based MedicineFingolimod HydrochlorideHumansImmunosuppressive AgentsMultiple SclerosisRandomized Controlled Trials as TopicSample SizeTreatment OutcomeFingolimod HydrochlorideImmunosuppressive AgentsClinical development planClinical trial simulationNegative binomial modelNetwork meta-analysisRelapse rateSample size

Identifiers

PMID30157904
PMCPMC6116448

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.