Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30157850›Full record

ArticleMalaria journal2018

Using ante-natal clinic prevalence data to monitor temporal changes in malaria incidence in a humanitarian setting in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Joel Hellewell, Patrick Walker, Azra Ghani, Bhargavi Rao, Thomas S Churcher

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Malaria journal, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
15citing papers in PubMed
1.1field-weighted citation impact, top 19% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

15 citing papers in PubMed, 18 citations in OpenAlex.

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  5. Assessing the utility of pregnant women as a sentinel surveillance population for malaria in Geita, Tanzania, 2019 - 2021.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2023
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.

Joel HellewellMRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London, London, UK. j.hellewell14@imperial.ac.uk.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2683-0849
Patrick WalkerMRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Azra GhaniMRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Bhargavi RaoManson Unit, Médecins Sans Frontières (Operational Centre Amsterdam), London, UK.
Thomas S ChurcherMRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Imperial College London · GBMédecins Sans Frontières‎ · GB

Funding

Medical Research Council MR/L012189/1Medical Research Council MR/R015600/1Wellcome TrustWellcome Trust 105272/Z/14/Z
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe number of clinical cases of malaria is often recorded in resource constrained or conflict settings as a proxy for disease burden. Interpreting case count data in areas of humanitarian need is challenging due to uncertainties in population size caused by security concerns, resource constraints and population movement. Malaria prevalence in women visiting ante-natal care (ANC) clinics has the potential to be an easier and more accurate metric for malaria surveillance that is unbiased by population size if malaria testing is routinely conducted irrespective of symptoms.

methodsA suite of distributed lag non-linear models was fitted to clinical incidence time-series data in children under 5 years and ANC prevalence data from health centres run by Médecins Sans Frontières in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which implement routine intermittent screening and treatment alongside intermittent preventative treatment in pregnancy. These statistical models enable the temporal relationship between the two metrics to be disentangled.

resultsThere was a strong relationship between the ANC prevalence and clinical incidence suggesting that both can be used to describe current malaria endemicity. There was no evidence that ANC prevalence could predict future clinical incidence, though a change in clinical incidence was shown to influence ANC prevalence up to 3 months into the future.

conclusionsThe results indicate that ANC prevalence may be a suitable metric for retrospective evaluations of the impact of malaria interventions and is a useful method for evaluating long-term malaria trends in resource constrained settings.

Indexed as

Child, PreschoolDemocratic Republic of the CongoHumansIncidenceInfantInfant, NewbornMalariaModels, StatisticalPrenatal CarePrevalenceRelief WorkEpidemiologyMalaria in pregnancyPlasmodium falciparum

Identifiers

PMID30157850
PMCPMC6114784
OpenAlexW2889041348

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.