ArticlePancreatology : official journal of the International Association of Pancreatology (IAP) ... [et al.]2018
Progression to pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma from pancreatic intraepithelial neoplasia: Results of a simulation model.
Article in Pancreatology : official journal of the International Association of Pancreatology (IAP) ... [et al.], 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 36 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
36 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- The impact of pancreatic cancer screening on life expectancy: A systematic review of modeling studies.International journal of cancer · 2023Pooled it
- Clinicopathologic Outcomes After Resection of Suspected High-Grade Pancreatic Intraepithelial Neoplasia Without Invasive Carcinoma: A Multicenter Retrospective Study.Annals of surgical oncology · 2026Article
- Pilot validation of a whole-blood mRNA expression-based diagnostic system for early-stage pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma: a single-center case-control diagnostic accuracy study.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Pancreatic cancer.Nature reviews. Disease primers · 2026Review
- Opportunities to Avoid Invasive Cancer by Diagnosis and Interception of Preneoplastic Lesions and Cancer Risk Conditions.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2026Article
- A Scoping Review on Calibration Methods for Cancer Simulation Models.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2025Article
- Deep learning CT model for stratified diagnosis of pancreatic cystic neoplasms: multicenter development, validation, and real-world clinical impact.NPJ digital medicine · 2025Article
- Comprehensive insights into pancreatic cancer treatment approaches and cutting-edge nanocarrier solutions: from pathology to nanomedicine.Naunyn-Schmiedeberg's archives of pharmacology · 2025Review
- Early neoplastic lesions of the pancreas: initiation, progression, and opportunities for precancer interception.The Journal of clinical investigation · 2025Review
- Self-amplifying NRF2-EZH2 epigenetic loop converts KRAS-initiated progenitors to invasive pancreatic cancer.Nature cancer · 2025Article
- Identification of patients at risk for pancreatic cancer in a 3-year timeframe based on machine learning algorithms.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Multi-Omics Meets Premalignancy: Paving the Way for Early Prevention of Cancer.Research (Washington, D.C.) · 2025Review
- Translating the multifaceted use of liquid biopsy to management of early disease in pancreatic adenocarcinoma.Frontiers in oncology · 2025Review
- Review
- Concurrent Invasive Ductal Carcinoma and Pancreatic Intraepithelial Neoplasia in Duodenal Heterotopic Pancreas: A Case Report.Oman medical journal · 2024Article
- Defining precancer: a grand challenge for the cancer community.Nature reviews. Cancer · 2024Review
- A mathematical model for pancreatic cancer during intraepithelial neoplasia.Royal Society open science · 2024Article
- Aspects and outcomes of surveillance for individuals at high-risk of pancreatic cancer.Familial cancer · 2024Review
- Biomarkers in Cancer Screening: Promises and Challenges in Cancer Early Detection.Hematology/oncology clinics of North America · 2024Review
- Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
Abstract
objectivesTo gain insight into the natural history and carcinogenesis pathway of Pancreatic Intraepithelial Neoplasia (PanIN) lesions by building a calibrated simulation model of PanIN progression to pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC)
methodsWe revised a previously validated simulation model of solid PDAC, calibrating the model to fit data from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program and published literature on PanIN prevalence by age. We estimated the likelihood of progression from PanIN states (1, 2, and 3) to PDAC and the time between PanIN onset and PDAC (dwell time). We evaluated a hypothetical intervention to test for and treat PanIN 3 lesions to estimate the potential benefits from PanIN detection.
resultsWe estimated the lifetime probability of progressing from PanIN 1 to PDAC to be 1.5% (men), 1.3% (women). Progression from PanIN 1 to PDAC took 33.6 years and 35.3 years, respectively, and from PanIN 3 to PDAC took 11.3 years and 12.3 years. A hypothetical test for PanIN 3 detection and treatment could provide a maximum, average life expectancy gain of 40 days.
conclusionsOur modeling analysis estimates PanINs have a relatively indolent course to PDAC, supporting the feasibility of potential future early detection strategies.
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