ArticleMedicine2018
The analysis of GM (1, 1) grey model to predict the incidence trend of typhoid and paratyphoid fevers in Wuhan City, China.
Article in Medicine, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
19 citing papers in PubMed, 47 citations in OpenAlex.
- Research on carbon emission forecasting during expressway maintenance period based on GWO-Markov optimized grey model.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Forecasting antimicrobial resistance in China using a hybrid ARIMA-GM(1,1) model.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Building an integrated healthcare system of China: an assessment of coupling coordination between disease prevention, medical services, and healthcare financing from 2012 to 2021.Health economics review · 2025Article
- The dynamic change of tuberculosis infection prevalence in rural residents: 10-year follow-up of a population-based, multicentre cohort study from China.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2025Article
- Evaluating the effectiveness of self-attention mechanism in tuberculosis time series forecasting.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Study on the prediction effect of a combined model of SARIMA and LSTM based on SSA for influenza in Shanxi Province, China.BMC infectious diseases · 2023Article
- Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the epidemiology of STDs in China: based on the GM (1,1) model.BMC infectious diseases · 2022Article
- Prediction of Incidence Trend of Influenza-Like Illness in Wuhan Based on ARIMA Model.Computational and mathematical methods in medicine · 2022Article
- Article
- Short-term prediction of COVID-19 spread using grey rolling model optimized by particle swarm optimization.Applied soft computing · 2021Article
- Predictive analysis of the number of human brucellosis cases in Xinjiang, China.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Research on the predictive effect of a combined model of ARIMA and neural networks on human brucellosis in Shanxi Province, China: a time series predictive analysis.BMC infectious diseases · 2021Article
- Total Health Expenditure and Its Driving Factors in China: A Gray Theory Analysis.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2021Article
- Which Should be Conserved According to Priority During Urban Expansion? Ecological Lands or Farmland?Environmental management · 2021Article
- Study on the relationship between the incidence of influenza and climate indicators and the prediction of influenza incidence.Environmental science and pollution research international · 2021Article
- Time series analysis of cumulative incidences of typhoid and paratyphoid fevers in China using both Grey and SARIMA models.PloS one · 2020Article
- A comparative study of two methods to predict the incidence of hepatitis B in Guangxi, China.PloS one · 2020Article
- A descriptive analysis of the Spatio-temporal distribution of intestinal infectious diseases in China.BMC infectious diseases · 2019Article
- Trends in the Epidemiology of Sexually Transmitted Disease, Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS), Gonorrhea, and Syphilis, in the 31 Provinces of Mainland China.Medical science monitor : international medical journal of experimental and clinical research · 2019Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Typhoid and paratyphoid fevers (TPF), systemic emerging infectious diseases, is a serious health problem for society. If the incidence trend of TPF can be predicted, prevention and control measures can be taken in advance to reduce the harm to the people's health.Grey Model First Order One Variable [GM (1, 1)] was applied to predict the incidence trend of TPF with the incidence data of TPF in Wuhan City of China from 2004 to 2015. The original data were acquired from the national surveillance system.The GM (1, 1) model was established as ŷ (t + 1) = 0.88 e + 0.15. The goodness-of-fit test indicated that the precision (degree 2) was qualified (C = 0.40, P = .91). We further compared actual values with predicted values in 2016 and found that GM (1, 1) model we built has excellent performance in incidence trend prediction.Our prediction shows that the TPF incidences in Wuhan City will be slowly decreasing in the next 3 years. It is, however, still necessary to strengthen the comprehensive prevention and control to reduce the incidence level of TPF.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.