Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30139872›Full record

ArticleScience (New York, N.Y.)2018

Serotype-specific immunity explains the incidence of diseases caused by human enteroviruses.

Margarita Pons-Salort, Nicholas C Grassly

Open access · greenAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Science (New York, N.Y.), 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 74 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
74citing papers in PubMed
9.6field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

74 citing papers in PubMed, 121 citations in OpenAlex.

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14 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

2 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

Margarita Pons-SalortDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, St Mary's Campus, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK. m.pons-salort@imperial.ac.uk.ORCID 0000-0001-5597-9285
Nicholas C GrasslyDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, St Mary's Campus, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-6067-4507
Imperial College London · GB

Funding

Medical Research Council MR/R015600/1Wellcome Trust 106073
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Human enteroviruses are a major cause of neurological and other diseases. More than 100 serotypes are known that exhibit unexplained complex patterns of incidence, from regular cycles to more irregular patterns, and new emergences. Using 15 years of surveillance data from Japan (2000-2014) and a stochastic transmission model with accurate demography, we show that acquired serotype-specific immunity can explain the diverse patterns of 18 of the 20 most common serotypes (including Coxsackieviruses, Echoviruses, and Enterovirus-A71). The remaining two serotypes required a change in viral characteristics, including an increase in pathogenicity for Coxsackievirus-A6, which is consistent with its recent global rise in incidence. On the basis of our findings, we are able to predict outbreaks 2 years ahead of time (2015-2016). These results have implications for the impact of vaccines under development.

Indexed as

Disease OutbreaksEnterovirusEnterovirus InfectionsEpidemiological MonitoringHumansIncidenceSerogroupSerotypingViral VaccinesViral Vaccines

Identifiers

PMID30139872
PMCPMC6559928
OpenAlexW2888099346

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.