ArticleInfectious Disease Modelling2017
Silent circulation of poliovirus in small populations.
Article in Infectious Disease Modelling, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 6 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed.
- Characterization of environmental and clinical surveillance inputs to support prospective integrated modeling of the polio endgame.PLOS global public health · 2025Review
- Review of poliovirus modeling performed from 2000 to 2019 to support global polio eradication.Expert review of vaccines · 2020Review
- Article
- Evaluating the probability of silent circulation of polio in small populations using the silent circulation statistic.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2019Article
- Corrigendum to "Silent circulation of poliovirus in small populations" [Infectious Disease Modeling 2 (2017) 431-440].Infectious Disease Modelling · 2018Article
- Another look at silent circulation of poliovirus in small populations.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2018Article
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundSmall populations that have been isolated by conflict make vaccination and surveillance difficult, threatening polio eradication. Silent circulation is caused by asymptomatic infections. It is currently not clear whether the dynamics of waning immunity also influence the risk of silent circulation in the absence of vaccination. Such circulation can, nevertheless, be present following a declaration of elimination as a result of inadequate acute flaccid paralysis surveillance (AFPS) or environmental surveillance (ES).
methodsWe have constructed a stochastic model to understand how stochastic effects alter the ability of small populations to sustain virus circulation in the absence of vaccination. We analyzed how the stochastic process determinants of the duration of silent circulation that could have been detected by ES were affected by
resultsAs
conclusionWe demonstrated that small populations have the potential to sustain prolonged silent circulation. Surveillance in these areas should be intensified before declaring elimination. To further validate these conclusions, it is necessary to realistically relax the simplifying assumptions about mixing and waning.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.