ArticleRisk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis2018
Measuring Subjective Probabilities: The Effect of Response Mode on the Use of Focal Responses, Validity, and Respondents' Evaluations.
Article in Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
17 citing papers in PubMed.
- Trial
- Psychometric properties of the Probability Bias Measure.PloS one · 2026Article
- For Better or Worse? Subjective Expectations and Cost-Benefit Trade-Offs in Health Behavior: An Application to Lockdown Compliance in the United Kingdom.Health economics · 2025Article
- Polarized Perceptions: How Time and Vaccination Status Modify Republican and Democratic COVID-19 Risk Perceptions.Journal of elections, public opinion and parties · 2024Article
- Article
- Tail and Center Rounding of Probabilistic Expectations in the Health and Retirement Study.Journal of econometrics · 2022Article
- Reciprocal relationships among influenza experiences, perceptions, and behavior: Results from a national, longitudinal survey of United States adults.Social science & medicine (1982) · 2022Article
- Communicating personalized risks from COVID-19: guidelines from an empirical study.Royal Society open science · 2021Article
- Mental associations with COVID-19 and how they relate with self-reported protective behaviors: A national survey in the United States.Social science & medicine (1982) · 2021Article
- Association Between Risk Factors for Complications From COVID-19, Perceived Chances of Infection and Complications, and Protective Behavior in the US.JAMA network open · 2021Article
- Age Differences in COVID-19 Risk Perceptions and Mental Health: Evidence From a National U.S. Survey Conducted in March 2020.The journals of gerontology. Series B, Psychological sciences and social sciences · 2021Article
- Black Americans demonstrate comparatively low levels of depression and anxiety during the COVID-19 pandemic.PloS one · 2021Article
- Relationships Between Initial COVID-19 Risk Perceptions and Protective Health Behaviors: A National Survey.American journal of preventive medicine · 2020Article
- Predictors of mental health during the Covid-19 pandemic in the US: Role of economic concerns, health worries and social distancing.PloS one · 2020Article
- Political polarization in US residents' COVID-19 risk perceptions, policy preferences, and protective behaviors.Journal of risk and uncertainty · 2020Article
- Reports of social circles' and own vaccination behavior: A national longitudinal survey.Health psychology : official journal of the Division of Health Psychology, American Psychological Association · 2019Article
- Capturing Subjective Age, Subjective Life Expectancy, and Their Links With Older Adults' Health: The Dutch Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam.Journal of aging and healthArticle
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Subjective probabilities are central to risk assessment, decision making, and risk communication efforts. Surveys measuring probability judgments have traditionally used open-ended response modes, asking participants to generate a response between 0% and 100%. A typical finding is the seemingly excessive use of 50%, perhaps as an expression of "I don't know." In an online survey with a nationally representative sample of the Dutch population, we examined the effect of response modes on the use of 50% and other focal responses, predictive validity, and respondents' survey evaluations. Respondents assessed the probability of dying, getting the flu, and experiencing other health-related events. They were randomly assigned to a traditional open-ended response mode, a visual linear scale ranging from 0% to 100%, or a version of that visual linear scale on which a magnifier emerged after clicking on it. We found that, compared to the open-ended response mode, the visual linear and magnifier scale each reduced the use of 50%, 0%, and 100% responses, especially among respondents with low numeracy. Responses given with each response mode were valid, in terms of significant correlations with health behavior and outcomes. Where differences emerged, the visual scales seemed to have slightly better validity than the open-ended response mode. Both high-numerate and low-numerate respondents' evaluations of the surveys were highest for the visual linear scale. Our results have implications for subjective probability elicitation and survey design.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.