Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30113665›Full record

ArticleNeurosurgery2019

Predicting Inpatient Length of Stay After Brain Tumor Surgery: Developing Machine Learning Ensembles to Improve Predictive Performance.

Whitney E Muhlestein, Dallin S Akagi, Jason M Davies, Lola B Chambless

Abstract readValidation Study
In one paragraph

Article in Neurosurgery, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 41 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
41citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

41 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  3. Pooled it
  4. Modelling the number of ICU beds, ICU length of stay, and ICU admission rates in Australia and New Zealand through to 2040: The PrognostICate Study.Critical care and resuscitation : journal of the Australasian Academy of Critical Care Medicine · 2026
    Article
  5. Machine learning based prediction of length of stay in acute ischaemic stroke of the anterior circulation in patients treated with thrombectomy.Interventional neuroradiology : journal of peritherapeutic neuroradiology, surgical procedures and related neurosciences · 2026
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  9. Development of Multiservice Machine Learning Models to Predict Postsurgical Length of Stay and Discharge Disposition at the Time of Case Posting.Annals of surgery open : perspectives of surgical history, education, and clinical approaches · 2025
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  16. Machine Learning for Benchmarking Critical Care Outcomes.Healthcare informatics research · 2023
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Whitney E MuhlesteinDepartment of Neurosurgery, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, Tennessee.
Dallin S AkagiDataRobot Inc, Boston, Massachusetts.
Jason M DaviesDepartments of Neurosurgery and Biomedical Informatics, State University of New York, Buffalo, New York.
Lola B ChamblessDepartment of Neurosurgery, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, Tennessee.

Funding

VANDERBILT UNIVERSITY CTSA FOR PEDIATRIC RESEARCHUL1RR024975 · NCRR · VANDERBILT UNIVERSITY · PI BERNARD, GORDON RAPHAEL · 2007 to 2011
$45.7M
Institutional Career DevelopmentKL2TR001413 · NCATS · STATE UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK AT BUFFALO · PI DUBOCOVICH, MARGARITA L · 2015 to 2024
$4.2M
NCATS NIH HHS KL2 TR001413NCRR NIH HHS UL1 RR024975
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundCurrent outcomes prediction tools are largely based on and limited by regression methods. Utilization of machine learning (ML) methods that can handle multiple diverse inputs could strengthen predictive abilities and improve patient outcomes. Inpatient length of stay (LOS) is one such outcome that serves as a surrogate for patient disease severity and resource utilization.

objectiveTo develop a novel method to systematically rank, select, and combine ML algorithms to build a model that predicts LOS following craniotomy for brain tumor.

methodsA training dataset of 41 222 patients who underwent craniotomy for brain tumor was created from the National Inpatient Sample. Twenty-nine ML algorithms were trained on 26 preoperative variables to predict LOS. Trained algorithms were ranked by calculating the root mean square logarithmic error (RMSLE) and top performing algorithms combined to form an ensemble. The ensemble was externally validated using a dataset of 4592 patients from the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program. Additional analyses identified variables that most strongly influence the ensemble model predictions.

resultsThe ensemble model predicted LOS with RMSLE of .555 (95% confidence interval, .553-.557) on internal validation and .631 on external validation. Nonelective surgery, preoperative pneumonia, sodium abnormality, or weight loss, and non-White race were the strongest predictors of increased LOS.

conclusionAn ML ensemble model predicts LOS with good performance on internal and external validation, and yields clinical insights that may potentially improve patient outcomes. This systematic ML method can be applied to a broad range of clinical problems to improve patient care.

Indexed as

AlgorithmsClinical Decision RulesLength of StayMachine LearningBrain NeoplasmsFemaleHumansInpatientsMaleMiddle AgedPrognosisRegression AnalysisLength of stayMachine learningOutcomesPredictive modeling

Identifiers

PMID30113665
PMCPMC7137462

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.