ArticleScientific reports2018
Exploring scenarios of chikungunya mitigation with a data-driven agent-based model of the 2014-2016 outbreak in Colombia.
Article in Scientific reports, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed.
- Recent advances in antiviral drugs for Chikungunya virus (CHIKV): Targets, mechanisms, and development strategies.Acta pharmaceutica Sinica. B · 2026Review
- The cross-city mobility patterns and incubation period of the early-stage chikungunya fever outbreak in Guangdong Province, China, in 2025.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Article
- Projecting the future impact of emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants under uncertainty: Modeling the initial Omicron outbreak.Epidemics · 2024Article
- A Qualitative Analysis of the Perceptions of Stakeholders Involved in Vector Control and Vector-Borne Disease Research and Surveillance in Orinoquia, Colombia.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2024Article
- System identifiability in a time-evolving agent-based model.PloS one · 2024Article
- A Strategy Formulation Framework for Efficient Screening during the Early Stage of a Pandemic.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
Abstract
New epidemics of infectious diseases can emerge any time, as illustrated by the emergence of chikungunya virus (CHIKV) and Zika virus (ZIKV) in Latin America. During new epidemics, public health officials face difficult decisions regarding spatial targeting of interventions to optimally allocate limited resources. We used a large-scale, data-driven, agent-based simulation model (ABM) to explore CHIKV mitigation strategies, including strategies based on previous DENV outbreaks. Our model represents CHIKV transmission in a realistic population of Colombia with 45 million individuals in 10.6 million households, schools, and workplaces. Our model uses high-resolution probability maps for the occurrence of the Ae. aegypti mosquito vector to estimate mosquito density in Colombia. We found that vector control in all 521 municipalities with mosquito populations led to 402,940 fewer clinical cases of CHIKV compared to a baseline scenario without intervention. We also explored using data about previous dengue virus (DENV) epidemics to inform CHIKV mitigation strategies. Compared to the baseline scenario, 314,437 fewer cases occurred when we simulated vector control only in 301 municipalities that had previously reported DENV, illustrating the value of available data from previous outbreaks. When varying the implementation parameters for vector control, we found that faster implementation and scale-up of vector control led to the greatest proportionate reduction in cases. Using available data for epidemic simulations can strengthen decision making against new epidemic threats.
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