Observational studyBMJ (Clinical research ed.)2018
Recent trends in life expectancy across high income countries: retrospective observational study.
Observational study in BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 191 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
191 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 429 citations in OpenAlex.
- Assessing the effects of population-level political, economic and social exposures, interventions and policies on inclusive economy outcomes for health equity in high-income countries: a systematic review of reviews.Systematic reviews · 2024Pooled it
- Effects of transdermal versus oral hormone replacement therapy in postmenopause: a systematic review.Archives of gynecology and obstetrics · 2023Pooled it
- The epigenetic clock as a predictor of disease and mortality risk: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Clinical epigenetics · 2019Pooled it
- Prehospital continuous positive airway pressure for acute respiratory failure: the ACUTE feasibility RCT.Health technology assessment (Winchester, England) · 2021Trial
- Long-term mortality rate changes and inverse patterns for pandemic and post-pandemic excess mortality.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Post-pandemic mortality patterns and COVID-19 burden considering multiple death causes.European journal of epidemiology · 2026Article
- Mortality Dynamics in Low-Mortality Countries: An Introduction to the Special Issue.European journal of population = Revue europeenne de demographie · 2026Article
- Age-specific climate sensitivity of respiratory hospitalizations in a tropical coastal city: 20-year Random Forest forecasts.International journal of biometeorology · 2026Article
- Cardiovascular Risk Factor Prevalence and Control by Education Strata in Older Adults in 3 Countries.JAMA network open · 2026Article
- Improving Population Health Through Housing Policy: Lessons From the Public Housing Program.The Milbank quarterly · 2026Article
- Long-term negative divergence in mortality at ages 25-49 years between the United Kingdom and 21 peer countries between 1990 and 2019.European journal of epidemiology · 2026Article
- Qualitative evidence for the determinants of deaths of despair: a scoping review.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Insights into US life expectancy stagnation from birth cohort mortality dynamics.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- Slowdown in mortality improvements and trends in lifespan inequality across high-income countries: the role of changing causes of death, 2010-2021.European journal of public health · 2026Article
- Tailoring Liver Transplant Decisions: How Donor-Recipient Age Matching Influences Outcomes.Clinical transplantation · 2026Article
- Gaps in Population Life Course Phenotype Trajectories Underlying Major Noncommunicable Diseases: A Scoping Review.International journal of population data science · 2026Article
- Geographical Inequalities in Mortality by Age and Gender in Italy, 2002-2019: Insights from a Spatial Extension of the Lee-Carter Model.Spatial demography · 2026Article
- Association between the rule of law and health-related sustainable development goals: an ecological study.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Catching up with stagnation: cause-specific dynamics of change in life expectancy at age 65 in the United States, Canada, and Latin America, 2000-2019.The Gerontologist · 2025Observational
- Moralisation, stigmatisation, and downstream interventions: How symbolic violence sustains geographic inequalities in deaths of despair in England.Social science & medicine (1982) · 2025Article
131 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
- Commented on by
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
2 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
objectivesTo assess whether declines in life expectancy occurred across high income countries during 2014-16, to identify the causes of death contributing to these declines, and to examine the extent to which these declines were driven by shared or differing factors across countries.
designDemographic analysis using aggregated data.
settingVital statistics systems of 18 member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
participants18 countries with high quality all cause and cause specific mortality data available in 2014-16.
main outcome measuresLife expectancy at birth, 0-65 years, and 65 or more years and cause of death contributions to changes in life expectancy at birth.
resultsThe majority of high income countries in the study experienced declines in life expectancy during 2014-15; of the 18 countries, 12 experienced declines in life expectancy among women and 11 experienced declines in life expectancy among men. The average decline was 0.21 years for women and 0.18 years for men. In most countries experiencing declines in life expectancy, these declines were predominantly driven by trends in older age (≥65 years) mortality and in deaths related to respiratory disease, cardiovascular disease, nervous system disease, and mental disorders. In the United States, declines in life expectancy were more concentrated at younger ages (0-65 years), and drug overdose and other external causes of death played important roles in driving these declines.
conclusionsMost of the countries that experienced declines in life expectancy during 2014-15 experienced robust gains in life expectancy during 2015-16 that more than compensated for the declines. However, the United Kingdom and the United States appear to be experiencing stagnating or continued declines in life expectancy, raising questions about future trends in these countries.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.