Predictors of rural family medicine practice in Canada.

objectiveTo examine the attributes of Canadian medical students at matriculation that predicted later practice in a rural location, with the goal of enhancing evidence-based approaches to increasing the numbers of rural family physicians.

designDemographic, attitudinal, and career choice data were collected from medical students at matriculation. Students were followed prospectively, and these data were linked to postresidency practice location.

settingEight Canadian medical schools.

participantsStudy participants were 15 classes of medical students entering medical school between 2002 and 2004.

main outcome measuresBackward stepwise logistic regression analysis was used to identify the entry characteristics that predicted postresidency practice as a rural family physician.

resultsData from 1542 students were analyzed. A strong association was found between career interest in rural family medicine at entry into medical school and postresidency rural practice as a family physician. Logistic regression analysis that did not include entry career interest found older age, being in a relationship, having completed school in a rural community, having a societal orientation, and expressing a desire for a varied scope of practice to be predictive of practising in a rural location. When entry career interest in a rural setting was included in the multivariate model, only this variable and older age predicted postresidency rural family practice.

conclusionThis study identified a number of demographic and attitudinal variables at medical school entry that predict postresidency practice in a rural setting. These results suggest multiple potential areas where the pipeline to rural family practice can be further supported in order to address the shortage of rural family physicians.