Observational studyJournal of the American Geriatrics Society2018
Long-Term Nursing Home Entry: A Prognostic Model for Older Adults with a Family or Unpaid Caregiver.
Observational study in Journal of the American Geriatrics Society, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 30 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
30 citing papers in PubMed, 46 citations in OpenAlex.
- Perceived Control, Cognitive Training, and Incident Alzheimer's Disease and Related Dementias in the ACTIVE Study.The journals of gerontology. Series B, Psychological sciences and social sciences · 2025Trial
- Transportation Services in Society for Individuals Living With Dementia in Long-Term Care Facilities: A Scoping Review.Journal of the American Medical Directors Association · 2025Article
- Compounding strain: The impact of caregiver strain on health outcomes in older adults with new cancer diagnoses.Journal of geriatric oncology · 2025Article
- Factors related to social disconnectedness among older unpaid caregivers.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Article
- Examining Care Network Characteristics in Older Adults' Relocation to Residential Care Settings.Innovation in aging · 2024Article
- Dementia caregiver burdens predict overnight hospitalization and hospice utilization.Palliative & supportive care · 2023Article
- The Role of Individual-Level Socioeconomic Status on Nursing Home Placement Accounting for Neighborhood Characteristics.Journal of the American Medical Directors Association · 2023Article
- Predictors of nursing home admission in the older population in Belgium: a longitudinal follow-up of health interview survey participants.BMC geriatrics · 2022Article
- A comprehensive prognostic tool for older adults: Predicting death, ADL disability, and walking disability simultaneously.Journal of the American Geriatrics Society · 2022Article
- Self-reported dual sensory impairment, dementia, and functional limitations in Medicare beneficiaries.Journal of the American Geriatrics Society · 2021Article
- Contextual Considerations and Recommendations for Estimating the Value of Alzheimer's Disease Therapies.PharmacoEconomics · 2021Article
- Stress, Burden, and Well-Being in Dementia and Nondementia Caregivers: Insights From the Caregiving Transitions Study.The Gerontologist · 2021Article
- Unmet family caregiver training needs associated with acute care utilization during home health care.Journal of the American Geriatrics Society · 2021Article
- Paid Caregivers in the Community-based Dementia Care Team: Do Family Caregivers Benefit?Clinical therapeutics · 2021Article
- Drivers of Long-Term Care Considerations by Persons With Cognitive Impairment.Journal of applied gerontology : the official journal of the Southern Gerontological Society · 2021Article
- Receipt of Posthospitalization Care Training Among Medicare Beneficiaries' Family Caregivers.JAMA network open · 2021Article
- Is well-being prior to receiving rehabilitation services associated with postrehabilitation mental health and functioning?Aging & mental health · 2021Article
- Do Caregiving Factors Affect Hospitalization Risk Among Disabled Older Adults?Journal of the American Geriatrics Society · 2021Observational
- Training Needs Among Family Caregivers Assisting During Home Health, as Identified by Home Health Clinicians.Journal of the American Medical Directors Association · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
7 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
objectivesTo comprehensively examine factors associated with long-term nursing home (NH) entry from 6 domains of older adult and family caregiver risk from nationally representative surveys and develop a prognostic model and a simple scoring system for use in risk stratification.
designRetrospective observational study.
settingNational Long-Term Care Surveys 1999 and 2004 and National Health and Aging Trends Study 2011 and linked caregiver surveys.
participantsCommunity-living older adults receiving help with self-care disability and their primary family or unpaid caregiver (N=2,676). MEASUREMENTS: Prediction of long-term NH entry (>100 days or ending in death) by 24 months follow up, ascertained from Minimum Data Set assessments and dates of death from Medicare enrollment files. Risk factors were measured from survey responses.
resultsIn total, 16.1% of older adults entered a NH. Our final model and risk scoring system includes 7 independent risk factors: older adult age (1 point/5 years), living alone (5 points), dementia (3 points), 3 or more of 6 self-care activities (2 points), caregiver age (45-64: 1 point, 65-74: 2 points, ≥75: 4 points), caregiver help with money management (2 points), and caregiver report of moderate (2 points) or high (4 points) strain. Using this model, participants were assigned to risk quintiles. Long-term NH entry was 7.0% in the lowest quintile (0-6 points), 20.4% in the middle 3 quintiles (7-14 points), and 30.9% in the highest quintile (15-22 points). The model was well calibrated and demonstrated moderate discrimination (c-statistic=0.670 in the original data, c-statistic=0.647 in bootstrapped samples, c-statistic=0.652 using the point-scoring system).
conclusionWe developed a prognostic model and simple scoring system that may be used to stratify risk of long-term NH entry of community-living older adults. Our model may be useful for population health and policy applications.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.