Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30094777›Full record

ArticleInternational journal of computer assisted radiology and surgery2018

Development and internal validation of an aneurysm rupture probability model based on patient characteristics and aneurysm location, morphology, and hemodynamics.

Felicitas J Detmer, Bong Jae Chung, Fernando Mut, Martin Slawski, Farid Hamzei-Sichani, Christopher Putman, Carlos Jiménez, Juan R Cebral

Abstract readValidation Study
In one paragraph

Article in International journal of computer assisted radiology and surgery, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 55 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
55citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

55 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Investigation of Contrast Retention in PCOM Aneurysms as a Possible Marker for Instability and Rupture.International journal for numerical methods in biomedical engineering · 2026
    Article
  5. Computational Framework for Modeling Effects of Brain Collateral Circulation.International journal for numerical methods in biomedical engineering · 2025
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  6. Review
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  17. Computational fluid dynamics and shape analysis enhance aneurysm rupture risk stratification.International journal of computer assisted radiology and surgery · 2025
    Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Image-based hemodynamic simulations for intracranial aneurysms: the impact of complex vasculature.International journal of computer assisted radiology and surgery · 2024
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Felicitas J DetmerBioengineering Department, Volgenau School of Engineering, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, Fairfax, VA, 22030, USA. fdetmer@gmu.edu.
Bong Jae ChungBioengineering Department, Volgenau School of Engineering, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, Fairfax, VA, 22030, USA.
Fernando MutBioengineering Department, Volgenau School of Engineering, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, Fairfax, VA, 22030, USA.
Martin SlawskiStatistics Department, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, USA.
Farid Hamzei-SichaniDepartment of Neurological Surgery, University of Massachusetts, Worcester, MA, USA.
Christopher PutmanInterventional Neuroradiology Unit, Inova Fairfax Hospital, Falls Church, VA, USA.
Carlos JiménezNeurosurgery Department, University of Antioquia, Medellín, Colombia.
Juan R CebralBioengineering Department, Volgenau School of Engineering, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, Fairfax, VA, 22030, USA.

Funding

Improved Evaluation of PCOM Aneurysms: Angio-Architecture, Hemodynamics and ShapeR21NS094780 · NINDS · GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY · PI CEBRAL, JUAN R · 2015 to 2016
$407k
National Institutes of Health/National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke R21NS094780NINDS NIH HHS R21 NS094780
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

purposeUnruptured cerebral aneurysms pose a dilemma for physicians who need to weigh the risk of a devastating subarachnoid hemorrhage against the risk of surgery or endovascular treatment and their complications when deciding on a treatment strategy. A prediction model could potentially support such treatment decisions. The aim of this study was to develop and internally validate a model for aneurysm rupture based on hemodynamic and geometric parameters, aneurysm location, and patient gender and age.

methodsCross-sectional data from 1061 patients were used for image-based computational fluid dynamics and shape characterization of 1631 aneurysms for training an aneurysm rupture probability model using logistic group Lasso regression. The model's discrimination and calibration were internally validated based on the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic and calibration plots.

resultsThe final model retained 11 hemodynamic and 12 morphological variables, aneurysm location, as well as patient age and gender. An adverse hemodynamic environment characterized by a higher maximum oscillatory shear index, higher kinetic energy and smaller low shear area as well as a more complex aneurysm shape, male gender and younger age were associated with an increased rupture risk. The corresponding AUC of the model was 0.86 (95% CI [0.85, 0.86], after correction for optimism 0.84).

conclusionThe model combining variables from various domains was able to discriminate between ruptured and unruptured aneurysms with an AUC of 86%. Internal validation indicated potential for the application of this model in clinical practice after evaluation with longitudinal data.

Indexed as

AdultAgedAneurysm, RupturedArea Under CurveCross-Sectional StudiesFemaleHemodynamicsHumansIntracranial AneurysmMaleMiddle AgedModels, BiologicalProbabilityRetrospective StudiesRisk FactorsROC CurveCerebral aneurysmHemodynamicsPredictionRisk factorsRuptureShape

Identifiers

PMID30094777
PMCPMC6328054

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.