ArticleApplied health economics and health policy2018
Projecting Pharmaceutical Expenditure in EU5 to 2021: Adjusting for the Impact of Discounts and Rebates.
Article in Applied health economics and health policy, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers.
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Who cites it
15 citing papers in PubMed.
- Horizon scanning and drug expenditure for rare diseases: three-year predictive model in Italy 2025-2027.Health economics review · 2025Article
- A comparative analysis of biologics market dynamics in 12 countries: (Bio)similar and sustainability.Frontiers in pharmacology · 2025Article
- Demographic and Geographic Characteristics Associated with the Type of Prescription and Drug Expenditure: Real World Evidence for Greece During 2015-2021.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- Values, challenges, and responses associated with high-priced potential cures: perspectives of diverse stakeholders in South Korea.Cost effectiveness and resource allocation : C/E · 2024Article
- Prices of Orphan Drugs in Four Western European Countries Before and After Market Exclusivity Expiry: A Cross-Country Comparison of List Prices and Purchase Prices.Applied health economics and health policy · 2023Article
- Exploring the effectiveness of demand-side retail pharmaceutical expenditure reforms : Cross-country evidence from weighted-average least squares estimation.International journal of health economics and management · 2023Article
- Public health policies for the common interest: rethinking EU states' incentives strategies when a pandemic reshuffles all interests.The European journal of health economics : HEPAC : health economics in prevention and care · 2022Article
- High-Expenditure Disease in the EU-28: Does Drug Spend Correspond to Clinical and Economic Burden in Oncology, Autoimmune Disease and Diabetes?PharmacoEconomics - open · 2021Review
- A systematic review of pharmaceutical price mark-up practice and its implementation.Exploratory research in clinical and social pharmacy · 2021Review
- Budget Impact Analysis of Biosimilar Products in Spain in the Period 2009-2019.Pharmaceuticals (Basel, Switzerland) · 2021Article
- The political economics of cancer drug discovery and pricing.Drug discovery today · 2020Review
- Forecasting drug utilization and expenditure: ten years of experience in Stockholm.BMC health services research · 2020Article
- Talkin' About a Resolution: Issues in the Push for Greater Transparency of Medicine Prices.PharmacoEconomics · 2020Article
- An analysis of orphan medicine expenditure in Europe: is it sustainable?Orphanet journal of rare diseases · 2019Article
- Barriers for Access to New Medicines: Searching for the Balance Between Rising Costs and Limited Budgets.Frontiers in public health · 2018Review
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Authors and funding
10 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundWithin (European) healthcare systems, the predominant goal for pharmaceutical expenditure is cost containment. This is due to a general belief among healthcare policy makers that pharmaceutical expenditure-driven by high prices-will be unsustainable unless further reforms are enacted.
objectiveThe aim of this paper is to provide more realistic expectations of pharmaceutical expenditure for all key stakeholder groups by estimating pharmaceutical expenditure at 'net' prices. We also aim to estimate any gaps developing between list and net pharmaceutical expenditure for the EU5 countries (i.e. France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK).
methodsWe adjusted an established forecast of pharmaceutical expenditure for the EU5 countries, from 2017 to 2021, by reflecting discounts and rebates not previously considered, i.e. we moved from 'list' to 'net' prices, as far as data were available.
resultsWe found an increasing divergence between expenditure measured at list and net prices. When the forecasts for the five countries were aggregated, the EU5 (unweighted) average historical growth (2010-2016) rate fell from 3.4% compound annual growth rate at list to 2.5% at net. For the forecast, the net growth rate was estimated at 1.5 versus 2.9% at list.
conclusionsOur results suggest that future growth in pharmaceutical expenditure in Europe is likely to be (1) lower than previously understood from forecasts based on list prices and (2) below predicted healthcare expenditure growth in Europe and in line with long-term economic growth rates. For policy makers concerned about the sustainability of pharmaceutical expenditure, this study may provide some comfort, in that the perceived problem is not as large as expected.
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