ArticlePloS one2018
Prediction of dengue outbreaks in Mexico based on entomological, meteorological and demographic data.
Article in PloS one, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.
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Who cites it
12 citing papers in PubMed, 31 citations in OpenAlex.
- Association of Climatic Factors with Frequency of Dengue.Infectious disease reports · 2026Article
- Entomo-Molecular and Epidemiological Survey of Arboviruses inResearch and reports in tropical medicine · 2026Article
- Multiobjective optimization to assess dengue control costs using a climate-dependent epidemiological model.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Article
- Effects of the Developing and Using a Model to Predict Dengue Risk Villages Based on Subdistrict Administrative Organization in Southern Thailand.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Predict the incidence of Guillain Barré Syndrome and arbovirus infection in Mexico, 2014-2019.PLOS global public health · 2022Article
- Collaboration between meteorology and public health: Predicting the dengue epidemic in Guangzhou, China, by meteorological parameters.Frontiers in cellular and infection microbiology · 2022Article
- A case of coinfection of a pediatric patient with acute SARS-COV-2 with MIS-C and severe DENV-2 in Mexico: a case report.BMC infectious diseases · 2021Article
- Interaction of climate and socio-ecological environment drives the dengue outbreak in epidemic region of China.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2021Article
- Probability of consolidation constrains novel serotype emergence in dengue fever virus.PloS one · 2021Article
- Paediatric dengue infection in Cirebon, Indonesia: a temporal and spatial analysis of notified dengue incidence to inform surveillance.Parasites & vectors · 2019Article
- Developing Risk Assessment Criteria and Predicting High- and Low-Dengue Risk Villages for Strengthening Dengue Prevention Activities: Community Participatory Action Research, Thailand.Journal of primary care & community healthArticle
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Dengue virus has shown a complex pattern of transmission across Latin America over the last two decades. In an attempt to explain the permanence of the disease in regions subjected to drought seasons lasting over six months, various hypotheses have been proposed. These include transovarial transmission, forest reservoirs and asymptomatic human virus carriers. Dengue virus is endemic in Mexico, a country in which half of the population is seropositive. Seropositivity is a risk factor for Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever upon a second encounter with the dengue virus. Since Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever can cause death, it is important to develop epidemiological mathematical tools that enable policy makers to predict regions potentially at risk for a dengue epidemic. We formulated a mathematical model of dengue transmission, considering both human behavior and environmental conditions pertinent to the transmission of the disease. When data on past human population density, temperature and rainfall were entered into this model, it provided an accurate picture of the actual spread of dengue over recent years in four states (representing two climactic conditions) in Mexico.
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