ArticleEpidemiology and infection2018
Spatiotemporal analysis and forecasting model of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in mainland China.
Article in Epidemiology and infection, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 26 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
26 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Dual seasonal pattern for hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome and its potential determinants in China.The Science of the total environment · 2023Pooled it
- Clinical severity and health-seeking behaviors of cases with hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome: A comparative study across spatial clusters in Jiangxi Province, China.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Article
- Spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in 31 provinces and municipalities of P.R. China and multi-factorial prediction of incidence.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Article
- Hantavirus Emergence in a Changing World: Virology, Pathogenesis, Surveillance, and One Health Preparedness.Microorganisms · 2026Review
- Spatio-temporal clustering and meteorological factors influencing HFRS incidence in mainland China, 2004-2021.Epidemiology and infection · 2025Article
- Spatiotemporal risk of human brucellosis under intensification of livestock keeping based on machine learning techniques in Shaanxi, China.Epidemiology and infection · 2024Article
- Using empirical dynamic modeling to identify the impact of meteorological factors on hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Weifang, Northeastern China, from 2011 to 2020.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2024Article
- Spatial-temporal patterns and influencing factors for hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome: A 16-year national surveillance analysis in China.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2024Article
- Spatiotemporal trends of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in China under climate variation.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
- Epidemiology of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome and Host Surveillance in Zhejiang Province, China, 1990-2021.Viruses · 2024Article
- Case Report: Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome Complicated by Bilateral Subdural Hematoma.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2023Article
- Time series analyses based on the joint lagged effect analysis of pollution and meteorological factors of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome and the construction of prediction model.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2023Article
- The Spatiotemporal Pattern and Its Determinants of Hemorrhagic Fever With Renal Syndrome in Northeastern China: Spatiotemporal Analysis.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2023Article
- Spatio-temporal distribution and influencing factors of norovirus outbreaks in Beijing, China from 2016 to 2020.BMC infectious diseases · 2023Article
- Construction of a Hantaan Virus Phage Antibody Library and Screening for Potential Neutralizing Activity.Viruses · 2023Article
- Urbanization-Related Environmental Factors and Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome: A Review Based on Studies Taken in China.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Review
- Epidemiological characteristics and prediction model construction of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Quzhou City, China, 2005-2022.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- Comparison of ARIMA and LSTM for prediction of hemorrhagic fever at different time scales in China.PloS one · 2022Article
- Adenosine Deaminase is a Potential Molecular Marker for Diagnosis and Prognosis of Haemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome.Infection and drug resistance · 2022Article
- Time series analysis of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in mainland China by using an XGBoost forecasting model.BMC infectious diseases · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) caused by hantaviruses is a serious public health problem in China, accounting for 90% of HFRS cases reported globally. In this study, we applied geographical information system (GIS), spatial autocorrelation analyses and a seasonal autoregressive-integrated moving average (SARIMA) model to describe and predict HFRS epidemic with the objective of monitoring and forecasting HFRS in mainland China. Chinese HFRS data from 2004 to 2016 were obtained from National Infectious Diseases Reporting System (NIDRS) database and Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). GIS maps were produced to detect the spatial distribution of HFRS cases. The Moran's I was adopted in spatial global autocorrelation analysis to identify the integral spatiotemporal pattern of HFRS outbreaks, while the local Moran's Ii was performed to identify 'hotspot' regions of HFRS at province level. A fittest SARIMA model was developed to forecast HFRS incidence in the year 2016, which was selected by Akaike information criterion and Ljung-Box test. During 2004-2015, a total of 165 710 HFRS cases were reported with the average annual incidence at province level ranged from 0 to 13.05 per 100 000 persons. Global Moran's I analysis showed that the HFRS outbreaks presented spatially clustered distribution, with the degree of cluster gradually decreasing from 2004 to 2009, then turned out to be randomly distributed and reached lowest point in 2012. Local Moran's Ii identified that four provinces in northeast China contributed to a 'high-high' cluster as a traditional epidemic centre, and Shaanxi became another HFRS 'hotspot' region since 2011. The monthly incidence of HFRS decreased sharply from 2004 to 2009 in mainland China, then increased markedly from 2010 to 2012, and decreased again since 2013, with obvious seasonal fluctuations. The SARIMA ((0,1,3) × (1,0,1)12) model was the most fittest forecasting model for the dataset of HFRS in mainland China. The spatiotemporal distribution of HFRS in mainland China varied in recent years; together with the SARIMA forecasting model, this study provided several potential decision supportive tools for the control and risk-management plan of HFRS in China.
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