ArticleDemography2018
How Has the Lower Boundary of Human Mortality Evolved, and Has It Already Stopped Decreasing?
Article in Demography, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed.
- Forecasting life expectancy in São Paulo City, Brazil, amidst the COVID-19 pandemic.Population health metrics · 2025Article
- Smoothing, Decomposing and Forecasting Mortality Rates.European journal of population = Revue europeenne de demographie · 2021Article
- A Mixture-Function Mortality Model: Illustration of the Evolution of Premature Mortality.European journal of population = Revue europeenne de demographie · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
1 author.
Funding
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Abstract
In contrast to the upper boundary of mortality, the lower boundary has so far largely been neglected. Based on the three key features-location, sex-specific difference, and level-I analyze past and present trends in the lower boundary of human mortality. The analysis is based on cohort mortality data for 38 countries, covering all the cohorts born between 1900 and 1993. Minimum mortality is analyzed using observed as well as smoothed estimates. The results show that the ages at which minimum mortality is reached have shifted to lower ages. Although the differences have become almost negligible over time, males are showing higher levels of minimum mortality than females. The level of minimum mortality was halved more than five times over the analyzed time horizon. The results also suggest that even after more than 150 years of mortality improvements, minimum mortality has not yet reached a lowest limit and is likely to decrease further in the near future. Trends in the three key features also raise questions about the importance of evolutionary, social, and biological determinants for the recent and future development of minimum mortality.
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Registered trials
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