ArticleTheoretical biology & medical modelling2018
A mathematical model for Zika virus transmission dynamics with a time-dependent mosquito biting rate.
Article in Theoretical biology & medical modelling, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers.
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14 citing papers in PubMed.
- Dengue virus introduction and 2025 outlook: scenario-based evaluation of vaccination impact using mathematical modeling.Cadernos de saude publica · 2026Article
- Theory of infectious disease spillover at an ecological boundary: impacts of seasonality and cross-boundary movement.Royal Society open science · 2025Article
- Exploring Zika's dynamics: A scoping review journey from epidemic to equations through mathematical modelling.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Review
- Modeling the 2014-2015 Vesicular Stomatitis Outbreak in the United States Using an SEIR-SEI Approach.Viruses · 2024Article
- Next-generation neuropeptide Y receptor small-molecule agonists inhibit mosquito-biting behavior.Parasites & vectors · 2024Article
- Democratizing Public Health: Participatory Policymaking Institutions, Mosquito Control, and Zika in the Americas.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2023Article
- How do i bite thee? let me count the ways: Exploring the implications of individual biting habits of Aedes aegypti for dengue transmission.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2022Article
- The effects of geographical distributions of buildings and roads on the spatiotemporal spread of canine rabies: An individual-based modeling study.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2022Article
- A fractional-order mathematical model for COVID-19 outbreak with the effect of symptomatic and asymptomatic transmissions.European physical journal plus · 2022Article
- Yellow fever virus outbreak in Brazil under current and future climate.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2021Article
- Disease Emergence in Multi-Patch Stochastic Epidemic Models with Demographic and Seasonal Variability.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2020Article
- Impact of weather seasonality and sexual transmission on the spread of Zika fever.Scientific reports · 2019Article
- Computer-Assisted and Data Driven Approaches for Surveillance, Drug Discovery, and Vaccine Design for the Zika Virus.Pharmaceuticals (Basel, Switzerland) · 2019Review
- Vector distribution and transmission risk of the Zika virus in South and Central America.PeerJ · 2019Article
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3 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundMathematical modeling has become a tool used to address many emerging diseases. One of the most basic and popular modeling frameworks is the compartmental model. Unfortunately, most of the available compartmental models developed for Zika virus (ZIKV) transmission were designed to describe and reconstruct only past, short-time ZIKV outbreaks in which the effects of seasonal change to entomological parameters can be ignored. To make an accurate long-term prediction of ZIKV transmission, the inclusion of seasonal effects into an epidemic model is unavoidable.
methodsWe developed a vector-borne compartmental model to analyze the spread of the ZIKV during the 2015-2016 outbreaks in Bahia, Brazil and to investigate the impact of two vector control strategies, namely, reducing mosquito biting rates and reducing mosquito population size. The model considered the influences of seasonal change on the ZIKV transmission dynamics via the time-varying mosquito biting rate. The model was also validated by comparing the model prediction with reported data that were not used to calibrate the model.
resultsWe found that the model can give a very good fit between the simulation results and the reported Zika cases in Bahia (R-square = 0.9989). At the end of 2016, the total number of ZIKV infected people was predicted to be 1.2087 million. The model also predicted that there would not be a large outbreak from May 2016 to December 2016 due to the decrease of the susceptible pool. Implementing disease mitigation by reducing the mosquito biting rates was found to be more effective than reducing the mosquito population size. Finally, the correlation between the time series of estimated mosquito biting rates and the average temperature was also suggested.
conclusionsThe proposed ZIKV transmission model together with the estimated weekly biting rates can reconstruct the past long-time multi-peak ZIKV outbreaks in Bahia.
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