ArticleBMC health services research2018
Using value of information methods to determine the optimal sample size for effectiveness trials of alcohol interventions for HIV-infected patients in East Africa.
Article in BMC health services research, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed, 7 citations in OpenAlex.
- Cost-Effectiveness and Value of Information Analysis of an Ambient Intelligent Geriatric Management (AmbIGeM) System Compared to Usual Care to Prevent Falls in Older People in Hospitals.Applied health economics and health policy · 2023Article
- Combining Model-Based Clinical Trial Simulation, Pharmacoeconomics, and Value of Information to Optimize Trial Design.CPT: pharmacometrics & systems pharmacology · 2021Article
- Determining the cost-effectiveness requirements of an exoskeleton preventing second hip fractures using value of information.BMC health services research · 2020Article
- Practical metrics for establishing the health benefits of research to support research prioritisation.BMJ global health · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
7 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundUnhealthy alcohol consumption exacerbates the HIV epidemic in East Africa. Potential benefits of new trials that test the effectiveness of alcohol interventions could not be evaluated by traditional sampling methods. Given the competition for health care resources in East Africa, this study aims to determine the optimal sample size given the opportunity cost of potentially re-allocating trial funds towards cost-effective alcohol treatments.
methodsWe used value of information methods to determine the optimal sample size by maximizing the expected net benefit of sampling for a hypothetical 2-arm intervention vs. control randomized trial, across ranges of policymaker's willingness-to-pay for the health benefit of an intervention. Probability distributions describing the relative likelihood of alternative trial results were imputed based on prior studies. In the base case, policymaker's willingness-to-pay was based on a simultaneously resource-constrained priority (routine HIV virological testing). Sensitivity analysis was performed for various willingness-to-pay thresholds and intervention durations.
resultsA new effectiveness trial accounting for the benefit of more precise decision-making on alcohol intervention implementation would benefit East Africa $67,000 with the optimal sample size of 100 persons per arm under the base case willingness-to-pay threshold and intervention duration of 20 years. At both a conservative willingness-to-pay of 1 x GDP/capita and a high willingness-to-pay of 3 x GDP/capita for an additional health gain added by an alcohol intervention, a new trial was not recommended due to limited decision uncertainty. When intervention duration was 10 or 5 years, there was no return on investment across suggested willingness-to-pay thresholds.
conclusionsValue of information methods could be used as an alternative approach to assist the efficient design of alcohol trials. If reducing unhealthy alcohol use is a long-term goal for HIV programs in East Africa, additional new trials with optimal sample sizes ranging from 100 to 250 persons per arm could save the opportunity cost of implementing less cost-effective alcohol strategies in HIV prevention. Otherwise, conducting a new trial is not recommended.
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