ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2018
Future population and human capital in heterogeneous India.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers.
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18 citing papers in PubMed, 83 citations in OpenAlex.
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- Beyond Education and Contraceptive Use: Do Caste, Ethnicity, and Religion Influence Fertility Behavior in Nepal? Evidence from Six Rounds of DHS.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- Trend analysis of pediatric urolithiasis prevalence from 1990 to 2021 in the BRICS.Frontiers in pediatrics · 2025Article
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- Global burden of age-related macular degeneration (1990-2021): trends, age-sex disparities, and socioeconomic dynamics from the GBD study.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Assessing assistive technology needs, unmet demands, barriers, and gaps in the Indian population: a protocol for large epidemiological survey.Frontiers in rehabilitation sciences · 2025Article
- Temporal Trends in the Burden of Disease for Male Infertility from 1990 to 2021 in the BRICS.Risk management and healthcare policy · 2025Article
- Social and physical environment effects on toileting disability among older adults in India.BMC geriatrics · 2024Article
- A dataset of human capital-weighted population estimates for 185 countries from 1970 to 2100.Scientific data · 2024Article
- Psychometric evaluation of the Chinese version of the Multidimensional Competitive Orientation Inventory.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Anaplastic Cancer: Our Experience.Indian journal of surgical oncology · 2022Article
- Prevalence of Anxiety Disorder in Adolescents in India: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Cureus · 2022Review
- Education's role in China's demographic future.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2021Article
- inPhocus: A Local Perspective on Phage-Based Biocontrol in Agriculture and Aquaculture in India.PHAGE (New Rochelle, N.Y.) · 2020Article
- Probabilistic projection of the sex ratio at birth and missing female births by State and Union Territory in India.PloS one · 2020Article
- Stalls in Africa's fertility decline partly result from disruptions in female education.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2019Article
- Future population and human capital in heterogeneous India.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2018Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Within the next decade India is expected to surpass China as the world's most populous country due to still higher fertility and a younger population. Around 2025 each country will be home to around 1.5 billion people. India is demographically very heterogeneous with some rural illiterate populations still having more than four children on average while educated urban women have fewer than 1.5 children and with great differences between states. We show that the population outlook greatly depends on the degree to which this heterogeneity is explicitly incorporated into the population projection model used. The conventional projection model, considering only the age and sex structures of the population at the national level, results in a lower projected population than the same model applied at the level of states because over time the high-fertility states gain more weight, thus applying the higher rates to more people. The opposite outcome results from an explicit consideration of education differentials because over time the proportion of more educated women with lower fertility increases, thus leading to lower predicted growth than in the conventional model. To comprehensively address this issue, we develop a five-dimensional model of India's population by state, rural/urban place of residence, age, sex, and level of education and show the impacts of different degrees of aggregation. We also provide human capital scenarios for all Indian states that suggest that India will rapidly catch up with other more developed countries in Asia if the recent pace of education expansion is maintained.
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