Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30060525›Full record

ArticleInternational journal of environmental research and public health2018

Predicting Infectious Disease Using Deep Learning and Big Data.

Sangwon Chae, Sungjun Kwon, Donghyun Lee

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in International journal of environmental research and public health, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 91 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
91citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

91 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

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31 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Sangwon ChaeDepartment of Business Administration, Korea Polytechnic University, 237 Sangidaehak-ro, Siheung-si, Gyeonggi-do 15073, Korea. chaesw1993@kpu.ac.kr.
Sungjun KwonDepartment of Business Administration, Korea Polytechnic University, 237 Sangidaehak-ro, Siheung-si, Gyeonggi-do 15073, Korea. solomonseal@kpu.ac.kr.
Donghyun LeeDepartment of Business Administration, Korea Polytechnic University, 237 Sangidaehak-ro, Siheung-si, Gyeonggi-do 15073, Korea. madeby2@gmail.com.ORCID 0000-0002-1461-2556

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Infectious disease occurs when a person is infected by a pathogen from another person or an animal. It is a problem that causes harm at both individual and macro scales. The Korea Center for Disease Control (KCDC) operates a surveillance system to minimize infectious disease contagions. However, in this system, it is difficult to immediately act against infectious disease because of missing and delayed reports. Moreover, infectious disease trends are not known, which means prediction is not easy. This study predicts infectious diseases by optimizing the parameters of deep learning algorithms while considering big data including social media data. The performance of the deep neural network (DNN) and long-short term memory (LSTM) learning models were compared with the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) when predicting three infectious diseases one week into the future. The results show that the DNN and LSTM models perform better than ARIMA. When predicting chickenpox, the top-10 DNN and LSTM models improved average performance by 24% and 19%, respectively. The DNN model performed stably and the LSTM model was more accurate when infectious disease was spreading. We believe that this study's models can help eliminate reporting delays in existing surveillance systems and, therefore, minimize costs to society.

Indexed as

Communicable DiseasesDeep LearningModels, TheoreticalAlgorithmsForecastingHumansRepublic of Koreadeep learningdeep neural networkinfectious disease predictionlong short-term memorysocial media big data

Identifiers

PMID30060525
PMCPMC6121625

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.