ReviewExpert review of vaccines2018
Polio endgame risks and the possibility of restarting the use of oral poliovirus vaccine.
Review in Expert review of vaccines, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 31 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
31 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Pooled it
- Observational analysis of the immunogenicity and safety of various types of spinal muscular atrophy vaccines.Inflammopharmacology · 2024Trial
- The safety and immunogenicity of two novel live attenuated monovalent (serotype 2) oral poliovirus vaccines in healthy adults: a double-blind, single-centre phase 1 study.Lancet (London, England) · 2019Trial
- Quantifying the benefits of improved operations for polio outbreak response: A model-based analysis.Vaccine · 2026Article
- Worst-case scenarios: Modeling uncontrolled type 2 polio transmission.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2024Article
- Coordinated global cessation of oral poliovirus vaccine use: Options and potential consequences.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2024Review
- Outbreak Response to Circulating Vaccine-Derived Poliovirus in Three Northern Regions of Ghana, 2019.BioMed research international · 2024Article
- Serotype 2 oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV2) choices and the consequences of delaying outbreak response.Vaccine · 2023Article
- Article
- Article
- The impact of disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic on global polio eradication.Vaccine · 2023Article
- Is it time to switch to a formulation other than the live attenuated poliovirus vaccine to prevent poliomyelitis?Frontiers in public health · 2023Review
- Complexity of options related to restarting oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) in national immunization programs after OPV cessation.Gates open research · 2023Article
- Looking back at prospective modeling of outbreak response strategies for managing global type 2 oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV2) cessation.Frontiers in public health · 2023Review
- Health economic analysis of vaccine options for the polio eradication endgame: 2022-2036.Expert review of vaccines · 2022Article
- Detection of vaccine-derived poliovirus circulation by environmental surveillance in the absence of clinical cases.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2021Article
- Using mobile phone data to reveal risk flow networks underlying the HIV epidemic in Namibia.Nature communications · 2021Article
- Stool Serology: Development of a Non-Invasive Immunological Method for the Detection of Enterovirus-Specific Antibodies in Congo Gorilla Faeces.Microorganisms · 2021Article
- Modeling Poliovirus Transmission in Borno and Yobe, Northeast Nigeria.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2021Article
- Reflections on Modeling Poliovirus Transmission and the Polio Eradication Endgame.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2021Review
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
introductionEnding all cases of poliomyelitis requires successful cessation of all oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV), but the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) partners should consider the possibility of an OPV restart. AREAS COVERED: We review the risks of continued live poliovirus transmission after OPV cessation and characterize events that led to OPV restart in a global model that focused on identifying optimal strategies for OPV cessation and the polio endgame. Numerous different types of events that occurred since the globally coordinated cessation of serotype 2-containing OPV in 2016 highlight the possibility of continued outbreaks after homotypic OPV cessation. Modeling suggests a high risk of uncontrolled outbreaks once more than around 5,000 homotypic polio cases occur after cessation of an OPV serotype, at which point restarting OPV would become necessary to protect most populations. Current efforts to sunset the GPEI and transition its responsibilities to national governments poses risks that may limit the ability to implement management strategies needed to minimize the probability of an OPV restart. EXPERT COMMENTARY: OPV restart remains a real possibility, but risk management choices made by the GPEI partners and national governments can reduce the risks of this low-probability but high-consequence event.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.