ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2018
A dynamic model of transmission and elimination of peste des petits ruminants in Ethiopia.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 41 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
41 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) in Africa and Asia: A systematic review and meta-analysis of the prevalence in sheep and goats between 1969 and 2018.Veterinary medicine and science · 2020Pooled it
- Cross-sectional study on seroprevalence and surveillance of peste des petits ruminants virus in small ruminants of the union territory of Puducherry, India.Tropical animal health and production · 2026Article
- Seroprevalence and associated risk factors of Peste des petits ruminants in goats and sheep in two zones, Oromia Region, Ethiopia.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- A multi-host mechanistic model of African swine fever emergence and control in Romania.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Epidemiological and Operational Constraints on the Feasibility of Peste des Petits Ruminants Eradication Target by 2030: Necessity for a New Pragmatic Road Map.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2026Review
- How fast can PPRV spread? Analyzing the results of an experimental PPRV infection of goats equipped with Ultra-Wideband sensors.PloS one · 2026Article
- Diagnostic and vaccination challenges in the PPR pre-eradication era: Identifying gaps and potential unintended consequences.Journal of advanced veterinary and animal research · 2025Article
- Peste des petits ruminants cases in Nigeria: A 10-year retrospective study from 2015 to 2024.The Onderstepoort journal of veterinary research · 2025Article
- Post-Vaccination Assessment of Peste Des Petits Ruminants in Sheep and Goats in the United Arab Emirates.Veterinary sciences · 2025Article
- Effectiveness and equity of vaccination strategies against Rift Valley fever in a heterogeneous landscape.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2025Article
- Article
- Mapping Small Ruminant Trade Networks in Ethiopia's Somali Region and Borena Zone: Implications for the Spread of Peste des Petits Ruminants Virus.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2025Article
- Seroprevalence and risk factors for sheep pox and goat pox among small ruminant herds from Nakapiripirit and Sembabule districts, Uganda.Frontiers in veterinary science · 2025Article
- Article
- Empirical and model-based evidence for a negligible role of cattle in peste des petits ruminants virus transmission and eradication.Communications biology · 2024Article
- Article
- Seroprevalence and associated risk factors of peste des petits ruminants in sheep and goats in three districts of the Central Oromia Region, Ethiopia.Frontiers in veterinary science · 2024Article
- Modeling for Smart Vaccination against Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2023Article
- Peste Des Petits Ruminants Screening and Diagnostic Tests in African Wildlife in the Context of Rinderpest Eradication (1994-2007).Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2023Article
- Assessment of post-vaccination immune response to peste des petits ruminants virus in small ruminants in the central and western regions of India.Virusdisease · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Peste des petits ruminants (PPR), a devastating viral disease of sheep and goats, has been targeted by the global community for eradication within the next 15 years. Although an efficacious attenuated live vaccine is available, the lack of knowledge about the transmission potential of PPR virus (PPRV) may compromise eradication efforts. By fitting a metapopulation model simulating PPRV spread to the results of a nationwide serological survey in Ethiopia, we estimated the level of viral transmission in an endemic setting and the vaccination coverage required for elimination. Results suggest that the pastoral production system as a whole acts as a viral reservoir, from which PPRV spills over into the sedentary production system, where viral persistence is uncertain. Estimated levels of PPRV transmission indicate that viral spread could be prevented if the proportion of immune small ruminants is kept permanently above 37% in at least 71% of pastoral village populations. However, due to the high turnover of these populations, maintaining the fraction of immune animals above this threshold would require high vaccine coverage within villages, and vaccination campaigns to be conducted annually. Adapting vaccination strategies to the specific characteristics of the local epidemiological context and small ruminant population dynamics would result in optimized allocation of limited resources and increase the likelihood of PPR eradication.
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