ArticleInfluenza and other respiratory viruses2018
Nonannual seasonality of influenza-like illness in a tropical urban setting.
Article in Influenza and other respiratory viruses, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers.
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Who cites it
11 citing papers in PubMed.
- Vertical Vaccination Against Infant Influenza Hospitalization in a Tropical Setting.JAMA network open · 2026Article
- Noisy periodicity in tropical respiratory disease dynamics.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- A combination of annual and nonannual forces drive respiratory disease in the tropics.BMJ global health · 2023Article
- Repeatability and timing of tropical influenza epidemics.PLoS computational biology · 2023Article
- A combination of annual and nonannual forces drive respiratory disease in the tropics.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2023Article
- Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions Implemented to Control the COVID-19 Were Associated With Reduction of Influenza Incidence.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- Age-seroprevalence curves for the multi-strain structure of influenza A virus.Nature communications · 2021Article
- Vietnam Climate Change and Health Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment, 2018.Environmental health insights · 2020Article
- Nonannual seasonality of influenza-like illness in a tropical urban setting.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2018Article
- Primary care influenza-like illness surveillance in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam 2013-2015.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2018Observational
- Structure of general-population antibody titer distributions to influenza A virus.Scientific reports · 2017Article
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21 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundIn temperate and subtropical climates, respiratory diseases exhibit seasonal peaks in winter. In the tropics, with no winter, peak timings are irregular.
methodsTo obtain a detailed picture of influenza-like illness (ILI) patterns in the tropics, we established an mHealth study in community clinics in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC). During 2009-2015, clinics reported daily case numbers via SMS, with a subset performing molecular diagnostics for influenza virus. This real-time epidemiology network absorbs 6000 ILI reports annually, one or two orders of magnitude more than typical surveillance systems. A real-time online ILI indicator was developed to inform clinicians of the daily ILI activity in HCMC.
resultsFrom August 2009 to December 2015, 63 clinics were enrolled and 36 920 SMS reports were received, covering approximately 1.7M outpatient visits. Approximately 10.6% of outpatients met the ILI case definition. ILI activity in HCMC exhibited strong nonannual dynamics with a dominant periodicity of 206 days. This was confirmed by time series decomposition, stepwise regression, and a forecasting exercise showing that median forecasting errors are 30%-40% lower when using a 206-day cycle. In ILI patients from whom nasopharyngeal swabs were taken, 31.2% were positive for influenza. There was no correlation between the ILI time series and the time series of influenza, influenza A, or influenza B (all P > 0.15).
conclusionThis suggests, for the first time, that a nonannual cycle may be an essential driver of respiratory disease dynamics in the tropics. An immunological interference hypothesis is discussed as a potential underlying mechanism.
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